Wed 12 Jan 2011
Here is my recap of my simulated finals of the NCAA Playoffs which took place the same day as the real finals (1/10/11):
Monday January 10, 2011 (Game played in New Orleans, LA):
- Oregon (2) 31 – Stanford (4) 29: In a game for the ages, Oregon got the win on a last second 35-yard field goal by sophomore Rob Beard. The game was much closer than the earlier contest this season when Oregon blew out the Cardinal by three touchdowns on October 2 (52-31). In that October 2 game in Eugene, the Cardinal were outscored 28-0 in the second half thanks in part to three costly turnovers. Tonight the Cardinal protected the ball with no turnovers. QB Andrew Luck had over 300 yards through the air for the Cardinal, but in the end the Ducks, lead by Sophomore QB Derron Thomas, who had 222 yards passing to go along with 55 yards running, came out victorious.
Summary:
- Looking at the real life 2010 college season, Stanford may have been the best team in the country. The predictor in the Jeff Sagarin ratings, which is the basis for the lines at many books, indicates this. They had one bad half of football all season (October 2, 2010 in Eugene).
- In a playoff, rarely does the best team win, but in a playoff, every team that deserves a shot to win a championship gets that shot.
- I feel bad for the kids on the TCU team that rolled over every opponent this season and outscored their opponents by an average of 41 to 12. They were 13-0, but because they did not play in a “power” conference, did not get a shot to play for the championship.
- Some people will question why the simulation did not have Auburn in the Finals. In real life Auburn was 14-0, but an interesting fact is that seven of those games were won by 8 or less points. Without Cam Newton, Auburn may well have had four losses. In my simulation, I had Cam Newton hurting his ankle. In any playoff, luck plays an important factor, and Auburn would not have been able to survive an injury to Newton.
- One thing that I very much dislike about College Football is the weak non-conference schedule that most teams play in order to protect their hopes of going undefeated. For instance Auburn played Arkansas State, Louisiana Monroe, and Chattanooga, Oregon played New Mexico and Portland State (winning 72-0 and 69-0). In a playoff situation, where a conference winner is guaranteed a spot, power teams would more than likely be scheduling other power teams for their early season non-conference schedule as they would want to prepare conference play.
- The BCS Championship game was not even shown on network TV as ESPN carried the game. Could you even imagine the attention that a 16-team playoff would draw to College Football?
- Presently, the NCAA is so against a playoff that they will not even allow Electronic Arts to program on into their Video Game. Hopefully in the next decade, the NCAA will see the light.
February 23rd, 2011 at 2:45 pm
Sam and Friends,
As I’m sure all of you know, MLB announces the newest class of HOF members later this afternoon. With this announcement, the value of my autographed baseball collection could increase wildly. Bert- be home- Blyleven, Roberto Alomar, Jack the Cat Morris, Barry Larkin, Lee Smith, Tim Raines, Detroit’s very own Alan Trammell, Tampa’s and former Devil Ray Fred McGriff and Donnie Baseball Mattingly lead the way this year.
I am not sure who will have enough votes for entry but it is a fascinating conversation nonetheless. Can Bert get in without Jack Morris eventually getting in? Don’t think so. Can Larkin get in and yet the doors be closed to Trammell? And does 7 career HR really mean that the Crime Dog will have to wait that much longer – possibly an eternity to get in? ( The mesh hat in the baseball instructional video could be his undoing) Did Kirby Puckett dominate that much more and for a longer period than Don Mattingly? I still cannot figure out how Sweet Lou Whitaker did not get enough votes and has been removed from the ballot. His wife Crystal must have been involved in that somehow. Sam any comments?
But also let’s take a moment to honor a few others on the ballot this year. Detroit’s mid 90’s and early 2000’s savior Bobby Higginson is on the ballot. Take a picture Bobby- this will be your only year. BJ Surhoff: who can ever forget the young phenom going for over $4.00 in the first Rookie League Draft- back then we had 10 cent increments which makes the BJ one of the most sought by man. In my opinion, at this moment, he is still by far the best player ever named BJ.
My guesses are: Alomar and Blyleven get in. Larkin a near miss.
Trammell, Morris McGriff and Raines improve their vote totals but fall short. McGwire stays about the same- possibly drops a bit.
Bagwell and Palmeiro receive very low totals.
Spring is in the air at least it is in Tampa.
February 23rd, 2011 at 2:50 pm
Well I guess I won’t be keeping Raffy Soriano this coming season unless you want to trade for him? He’d be 2.80. He has been a Homer’s favorite since his days in Seattle minus his time in the NL. 35M for 3 years is amazing. Not to mention the EE just signed Mo for 2 more years.
So the Yanks now have 26 M lined up for two innings in games they are winning by small margins. The Rays entire bullpen will be less than one of these guys.
The Rays and a few others may have really missed the boat on Buster Posey. The Rays drafted Beckham, .263 in two seasons so far, #1 overall. Not only that but outside of Navi’s fluke .290 season the Rays have had a void at C for years. Jaso has momentarily filled that void but I am not convinced it is filled for the long term. Posey looks like the real deal and he is from FL.
P& C in 4 weeks but who is counting. We need to take roll to see who is coming back for 2011 and settle on a date. We are having the Summit March 24-27 so that is not a good weekend. I think it will have to be the following weekend, after the season starts.
February 23rd, 2011 at 2:54 pm
Written 9/2/10
Did you see the top play from last nights game? A lady, had to be at least grandma age, was in the first row on 1B line. Zobrist hit a hard, but not screaming, grounder her way. She leans over the railing with her glove ready to make the play and the ball hits her directly in the face! She was OK and Hendrick gave her the ball to a round of applause. 2 pitches later, Zorilla hits another ball her way and she again leans over the railing but this time makes the catch and raises her arms in triumph. The place went nuts. Zobrist got on and then CC hits yet another ball to her that she fields cleanly. It was awesome. 3 balls to her in two batters. Look for it on the not top 10. I did see a quick blurb of her on sportscenter this morning. Not on the actual game coverage but when they play the song and show short clips of the highlights.
Also another weird play. No one on and a righty Blue Jay strikes out. Batter is out as ball does not hit the ground. Navarro sloppily throws the ball to Pena to begin the throw-it-around part of the game but throws it over his head into right field. The RF retrieves the ball and throws it into 2B. Meanwhile the ump gave Navi a second ball that he throws to Longoria and he begins the throw-it-around from 3B. Suddenly there are two balls being thrown around at 2B. All that was missing was a ricochet ball off the catwalk.
Wood it be appropriate to say the Chris has may have my team Saleing toward the pennant?
February 23rd, 2011 at 2:58 pm
Written 8/31/10
My team is coming around nicely. It is the Anti-Homers team of past years and the mighty collapses. My SP has bottomed out with Pavano allowing 15 hits, and Neimann allowing 10 ER in starts recently. However Davis has been awesome since returning from the DL and cutting Harden allows me to breath more consistently every 5 days. Sale has more than made up for the loss of Harden’s K’s so far. If he gets one W it is a great move on my part. Soriano continues to be great and I could possibly get a point in S by passing Sammy. Not counting on that but it is possible. Especially if NYY Wood rest Mariano here and there the rest of the way. I was losing ground in ERA and Whip but have held off some of the pursuers with a few good pitching performances the last couple days. Guthrie, Davis, and Haren have been good lately.
The hitting is improving. Couple HR last night. Longo and Cano are performing like MVP’s again after a month off. Jaso, already named to the all pick up team, is hitting well to.
I think the championship will come down to P categories though and that’s where I like my chances.
BA: both of us are pretty locked in our positions right now. It will take a major streak one way or the other for any movement here.
HR: both could move up or down. With both of us more likely to move down. I have 3 teams within 6 HR of me. Swing hard fellas.
RBI: You have mercied the league and I seem to be holding steady with 11 Points.
SB: I could move up or down and you are a little in danger of dropping one and not much chance of improving.
K’s: the key category. I could make a major move in K’s especially by passing you. My staff has been hurt recently but seem healthy right now and that could lead to catching some teams.
ERA: Similar to the K’s but not as favorable to me. I could catch you but have a stronger chance of being caught and you could move up a point as well.
WHIP:You look pretty locked and I could lose one. I did lose one for a while just last week but have rebuilt that cushion with a few good starts.
W: I am pretty solid like you are in RBI for 12 points. You have a bunch of teams behind you but have a 4-5 game cushion.
Saves: I am locked at no worse than 9 points and you could go up or down just as easily.
So the way I see it, The Homers in a rout.
Elliot started fall baseball last night. First practice. I am assistant coach. Our team is the Giants and our coach is a guy I know pretty well but he is a Yankee fan. At least he did not name our team the Yankees. He is playing on regulation fields this fall. He hit pretty good last night but it took the kids forever to run the bases. Looked like old men.
February 23rd, 2011 at 3:00 pm
Written 8/24/10
I am hoping the Homers have weathered their tough stretch with Harden- no biggie, Davis, not too big and Neimann the biggest in numerous ways, all on the DL at the same time and I did not replace them as I would have gained only one or two starts from the stiffs, Billy’s lingo, I would have picked up.
Teahan coming back finally solidified my O. Sounds weird but that allowed me to drop Kapler. I got Bourgos and dropped Patterson as it seems Buck did the same thing. It has helped that Longoria, Overbay and Cano are hitting again. Surprizingly I find that I could use a few SB, a category I thought I would run away with. Borbon has been a big disappointment. The game I went to he was robbed by Rodriguez in RF and should have had an RBI triple but the 3B coach held up the guy at 3rd. Borbon is the type who can have a week’s worth of stats in one game, at least he did that last Sept. I didn’t think I would catch Sam in S but it looks like I may. If I can get some more K’s going, I think I will be in good shape.
It is raining here, but it is a warm rain. We still feel the heat even on rainy days.
February 23rd, 2011 at 3:06 pm
Written 7/30/10
The games this week were great. The Tigers are done. They simply do not have enough MLB on their team now. Tuesday’s game was with the guys and we had a pretty good rip roaring time. Thursday was with the family. Elliot and Juliana each brought a friend. Mals is out of town so she did not go. Somehow while I am talking with Dan Dickerson, my wife and girls are visiting the Rays Tank and are approached by an employee of the Trop and offered front row seats directly behind the Tigers Bullpen. It was awesome. We had a chance to talk with the relievers and see them warm up from about 15 feet. Too bad the Tigers pen is a bunch of no names. We did talk with Phil Coke. He was shockingly open about how he is not happy and did not like Detroit. You’d think he would fake some of those feelings to perfect stranger fans. My wife became chummy with the usher who just so happened to be former MLB umpire Jim McKean’s son. I saw Jim but did not know who he was until he had left the area. Overall a really fun day. I did give Wheels a standing O. We also had our brooms and waived them proudly. It was funny as we tried to tell the Tigers how we are Tiger fans as we were all wearing our Rays gear and carrying brooms.
At least Maddon saved Soriano for the Yanks.
Series is sold out this weekend. As long as there is no sweep, it really is not a huge a weekend series as it may seem. I like the Yanks pitching slightly over the Rays for the series. I will be pulling for Davis who has been shaky but yet tough of late.
February 23rd, 2011 at 3:07 pm
Written 7/28/10
The Game was great. Fantastic finish as Soriano nailed down the W on a sweet game ending DP. Took old baseball cards of Tom Brookens and George Hendrick as conversation pieces. It worked wonders with Brookens. He came over and checked out the cards and we talked to us just about every inning. He flipped a ball to me as well. Taking the family to the afternoon game tomorrow. Price vs. Porcello.
Sorry to hear about Pinero. Saw a report he will be out 6-8 weeks. Ouch.
Hope all is good with you. Huge series this weekend in St. Pete.
February 23rd, 2011 at 3:10 pm
Written 7/20/10
Are the Yanks content with their OF? Are they ever content with anything. I heard one guy say Boston will never catch the Yanks because of Fenway park. Yankee Stadium holds so many more people at $76 per ticket and you can do the math over 81 games annually.
Personally I would like the Rays to keep CC but word is he will not be a Ray next year. They have Desmond Jennings coming up but I would rather see him take Upton’s place on the team. BJ is the only guy who has not signed at least one long term contract in Tampa. Plus I am not sure he ever will amount to much. Outside of the playoffs he has been an under performing hitter by far. Maybe we can trade him for his brother. I bet Gibby and BJ would not get along very well. Can’t go without mentioning how good the Kazmir trade was. Kind of like Price for Rivera.
I would like to see the Rays let Pena go. He is BB/K/HR already and he is getting older. We could get someone to play first I’m sure. Either that or he comes back at about half price. $4M. Also would like to see them keep Soriano. If anything the Rays have seen, is that it really has helped having a fulltime legit closer on the team. Howell will be back next year but he is not that guy. I have not heard if they have anyone in the minors who could be closer material. I do think they have a future 1B somewhere but he may be a few years away yet.
February 23rd, 2011 at 3:50 pm
Written 5/25/10
We took the kids to the Tampa Yankees game where Tony Perez and Gary Carter were there and ended up with 5 HOF autographed baseballs. Not too bad. My oldest had a ticket to that game for being a bus patrol.
Below is a summary of a game as told to Kraig Draggoo, (you may know him, GMI and was in Sam’s fraternity) when I met Sam and Little Sammy for a Tampa Yankee game. The most fun I think I have had at any game- top 10 for sure.
Sam was down here for a spring break in mid April and we decided to go to the Tampa Yankees game. I had Elliot and Juliana and he was with Little Sammy and some of his in-laws. The Tampa Yankees don’t draw many fans and it was a cold rainy day so there was probably 50- 60 people there. Sam was sitting half way up the stands talking with his in-laws and I was down near the dugout with Little Sammy and my kids. This is about 5-6 years ago.
Well after every pitch, little Sammy would yell up to big Sam and let Sam know what the pitch was. “that was a strike Dad!” “That was a ball Dad.” Every pitch he would tell Sam, and well I guess everyone in the park, what the pitch was and he didn’t do it quietly. Then a foul ball was hit back to the scree and the batboy, who was sitting very close to us, retrieved it and came back to sit on his seat. I asked the batboy if he could give it to Little Sammy and after some thought the batboy reluctantly gave it to Little Sammy in a way not to draw attention to himself. Little Sammy then announces to everyone in the park that he got a baseball and holds it up. “got a baseball Dad,. . .That’s my second one today Dad.” The batboy about wanted to die.
Then an inning or so later, he is still letting everyone know, especially Dad, if each pitch was a ball or strike- he suddenly turns and looks at Sam and yells to him, “Need a hot dog Dad!!” I about died. Juliana still says that is the hardest she has seen me laugh ever. “Need a hot dog Dad” is still quoted around here during cookouts or if we go to a baseball game.
February 23rd, 2011 at 3:52 pm
Written 5/24/10
The FishHawk Tigers got off to a slow start Saturday. We were down 10-1 in the bottom of the 2nd. I had to bring in Elliot to pitch as he was our only eligible pitcher. Believer it or not we got a few huge rallies going and ended up cutting the lead to 10-8 by the 4th inning. We took the lead with 3 in the 5th and added 3 more in the 6th. Elliot went 4 2/3 innings and gave up just one run. Picked a guy off second as well. We even turned a double play to end it. Elliot was pretty proud as was I. Never say die Tigers. We have our work cut out tonight as we play the Rangers who won the league. We beat them 1-0 in the season but was with our top P who is now hurt. He struck out 15 that night and scored the only run after he lead off the 2nd with a triple. We’ll see how it goes.
I will keep in mind your proposal. Did you like my new Green slogan. Save: Wood.