Patti Engineering Insight

I should really use this blog to post more stuff about Patti Engineering. I should be posting about our work with Siemens, Mitsubishi, and the other control products we have developed expertise with. I will state with conviction that I am very proud of our team at Patti Engineering. Having survived through the recent great recession, we are using the lessons learned to thrive in the present times. It is thanks to a superior team of problem solving engineers, as well as loyal customers that realize that not all engineers (or engineering companies) are created equal. Judging a highly educated person who is paid to think for a living strictly by an hourly rate is foolish. Now onto one of my passions, Tiger baseball:

Last Night the Tiger’s had a nice come from behind 8-7 victory over the reeling Minnesota Twins to complete the first third of the season at 28-26. If you want to know how a Tiger player’s stats project out for the season, take his stats today and multiply by three. Here are some observations from the first third of the Tiger’s 2011 campaign:

• In 2010, the average AL team scored 4.45 runs per game, which was the lowest output since 1992. This year, the average is 3% lower at 4.31 runs per game. The .253 league wide batting average is the lowest it has been since 1972!
• The Tiger’s are scoring 4.33 runs/game, but giving up 4.50. History shows that the Tiger’s are a bit lucky to be 28-26 and giving up more runs than you are scoring will more than likely lead to a sub .500 record by the end of the year.
• The Tiger’s in 2010 stood at 28-26 and were in second place, 3.5 games behind the Twins. They have the exact same record in 2011, again are in second place, but this year they are 5 games behind the Indians.
• Under Jim Leyland, the Tigers have a .537 win% in the first third of a season, .567 in the second third, and .461 in the last third.
• Second Base:
  • Our projected starting 2B (Carlos Guillen) has not played yet this year and likely will not play before the all star break.
  • Our opening day 2B (Will Rhymes) held the position through the end of April then was demoted to Toledo.
  • May brought Scott Sizemore, who went 3-4 in his first game. A sub .200 average in his next 16 games got him sent to Oakland where he is starting for Sacramento. Batting over .400 at AAA this year seems to indicate that he will eventually hit Major League Pitching and the Tiger’s were too impatient with him.
  • When Sizemore was traded on May 26, Ryan Raburn was named the starting 2B. This is despite the fact that he had started 47 games at 2B in his Tiger Career and according to Baseball Info Solutions would cost the Tiger’s 25 runs over full season with his poor fielding at that position. He has started 2 of 5 games since that proclamation. With his .197 batting average, he does seem fit for the role.
• Jhonny Peralta (310/370/536) and Victor Martinez (301/360/493) have been very good pickups by Dave Dombrowski. Peralta provides only average defense, but not many teams get that kind of production from a SS. V-Mart has caught 30% of his games giving Avila rest against tough LH starters.
• Give the Tiger’s credit for being patient with Avila. In 2011, he has already more HRs (8 v 7) and almost as many RBI (29 v 31) compared to his poor sophomore showing in 2010.
• Austin Jackson is having a poor sophomore year, but the Tigers must be patient with him. He plays too good of defense and has too much of a track record in the minors to think that the poor start in 2011 is anything more than an aberration.
• The starting pitching has been stable. Until Phil Coke twisted his ankle, the Tiger’s had been trotting the same 5 guys out there. The Starters overall are 20-16 with a 3.94 ERA and have been averaging 6 1/3 innings pitched per start.
• The Bullpen has been a struggle with a 5.26 cumulative ERA. Ryan Perry, Brad Thomas, and Joaquin Benoit have all been disappointing. The bullpen needs to get settled or it will be a LONG season at Comerica.
• For the Tigers to win the division, the following needs to happen:
  • The Bullpen needs to get settled with guys having assigned roles and performing well when called on.
  • The 2B situation needs to be rectified. Ryan Raburn is NOT the answer (as he can’t field the position) and I don’t think Danny Worth will hit enough to be the answer. Maybe a healthy Carlos Guillen helps. Maybe they recycle someone off of the scrap heap. Maybe Will Rhymes comes back up and hits more like he did last year.
  • Magglio has to return and be productive.
• It is Leyland’s last year under contract, and I don’t see him returning unless he wins the division. Dave Dombrowski, the GM, is under the same situation. I can see the Tiger’s giving Dombrowski a pass based on the stockpile of Arms he has built up in the minor leagues.

A full baseball season can be broken into Nine 18-game segments. I have termed these 18-game segments as an “inning” of a season.  Let’s compare the first inning of 2010 to the first inning from the last 4 years.

                                                                              Starters:         Bullpen:

       W-L  RS –RA     HR-SB-AVG/OBA/SLG    W-L- IP-  ERA     W-L-S-ERA

2010: 10-8  84-85     10- 6-278/375/413    4-5-96.2-5.51    6-3-6-2.32

2009: 10-8  102-84     21-12-276/349/432    7-6-103.1-4.62    3-2-4-3.96

2008:  6-12 74 -112    15-10-262/345/404    3-9- 96.2-5.96    3-3-3-5.28

2007: 10-8  86 -79     17- 9-235/313/380    5-2-110.2-3.66    5-6-8-4.68

2006: 11-7  89 -69     30- 5-281/332/496   10-7-107.2-4.01    1-0-5-3.10

The start of the 2010 was a weird success. 14 of the first 20 games the Tigers play are on the road, and as the first inning ends the Tigers were close to ending an 11-day, 11-game, 7,000 mile road trip. I have been keeping my “innings” on the Tigers since 2007 and this was an inning of extremes. The lowest bullpen ERA in an inning, the least amount of HRs in an inning, one of the highest starter ERAs, and one of the highest on base percentages.

The starting pitching struggles hark back to the issues the starters had two years ago, but thanks to a lights out bullpen the team was 10-8 despite being outscored. On offense, the team had their highest on base percentage for an inning since the 4th inning of 2007, but hit only 10 homeruns (only 1 by someone not from Venezuela).

If the Tigers can straighten out their starting pitching, you have to figure they will give Minnesota a run in the division. But ultimately, they are going to have to perform in September. The Tigers under Jim Leyland have folded the last four seasons:

• 2006: The team had a 76-36 record and a 10-game lead on August 7^th, they then went 19-31 the rest of the year and lost the division.  
• 2007: The Team had a 59-38 record which was the best record in baseball and a 2-game lead on July 23^rd. They got swept at Chicago in a double header the next day on route to a 29-36 finish. 
• 2008: After a horrible start, the team climbs back to a 52-49 record on July 23^rd. They were within 5 games of the White Sox. A blown save by Todd Jones against the White Sox starts a 22-39 run to end the season.
• 2009: The Tigers climb to 75-61 on September 6 and open up a 7-game lead after 3 dramatic wins in a sweep at Tampa. They then promptly get swept at KC by the lowly Royals starting an 11-16 finish that culminates in a one-game playoff loss to the Twins.

Analysis of the First Inning:

Starting Pitching: Bonderman and Willis were the big question marks coming into the season and even though neither were lights out, you have to be encouraged that Dontrelle only walked 7 in 17 innings and equally  encouraged by Bonderman striking out 14 and only giving up 13 hits in 15 innings. Verlander has struggled, but he also struggled at the beginning of last year. Porcello is the real concern as he is getting hit all over the ball park (23 hits in 15.1 innings). Scherzer has been terrific, his strikeout rate is down from his rookie year, but this is probably by design as he is concentrating on going deeper in games.

Bullpen: The rigthhanders in the bullpen have been great. The 4 righthanders are combined to give up 41 baserunners in 40 innings with a 1.35 ERA. The lefties in the Pen, Ni, Thomas, and Coke have struggled at times, giving up 42 baserunners in 24 innings, but have held opponents to a 4.09 ERA.

Offense: The team definitely seems to be taking a different batting approach in 2010 as they are being much more patient (2nd in the league in walks compared to 8th in 2010). The hope is that the Homeruns will start coming in greater frequency as the season moves on.

With Guillen going on the DL, the Tigers are now starting 3 ture rookies who have made their debuts in 2010 (Jackson, Sizemore, and Boesch). The true rookies are hitting a combined 295/359/388 (avg/obp/slg), though they had yet to hit a HR. Miguel Cabrerra hitting like he did at the beginning of 2009. Magglio, traditionally a  slow starter, is looking very good and is making Dombrowski look smart for not cutting him last July like so many in this town were demanding it. Johnny Damon is doing exactly what the Tigers wanted by getting on base and setting the table for the Venezuelans. If Santiago and Everett continue as they started, you have to figure Ramon will get the balk of the playing time. The catching platoon has thrown out a lot of runners, but hitting anemically 129/280/194.

In summary, the key to 2010 is going to be getting the starting pitching on track . Obviuosly, a 5.51 ERA from the starters for the whole season will not result in a record at the end that is over .500.

A full baseball season can be broken into nine 18-game segments. I have termed these 18-game segments as an “inning” of a season. The 9th inning of 2009 provided an extra game as the Tigers and Twins hooked up for an exciting but deflating one game playoff.

Let’s compare the nine innings of 2009:

                                                                      Starters:         Bullpen:

       W-L  RS –RA     HR-SB-AVG/OBA/SLG    W-L- IP-  ERA     W-L-S-ERA

1st:  10-8  102-84     21-12-276/349/432    7-6-103.1-4.62    3-2-4-3.96

2nd:  10-8   99-86     20- 6-265/342/436    8-5-104.0-3.63    2-3-3-5.68

3rd:   9-9   67-65     14-13-252/317/370    9-8-114.1-3.23    0-1-5-4.23

4th:  12-6   85-84     29- 8-259/335/459    6-5- 97.2-4.98    6-1-6-4.08

5th:   7-11  70-76     23- 7-234/307/403    5-7-108.1-3.90    2-4-3-3.66

6th:  10-8   82-86     16- 7-268/338/412    6-6-113.2-4.75    4-2-5-3.44

7th:   9-9   74-85     25- 9-250/321/423    5-5-104.0-4.76    4-4-6-4.39

8th:  10-8   85-92     19- 7-267/355/425    7-5-101.1-4.88    3-3-6-5.28

9th:   9-10  79-87     16- 3-271/351/390    7-8-109.1-4.45    2-2-5-4.13

On Sunday September 6 the Tigers completed a sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays. The Tigers were 14 games over .500 and had a 7 game lead on the second place Minnesota Twins who were at exactly .500. The Tigers used their whole roster that magical weekend at TB which featured late inning wins in every game. Exactly one month later on the 163rd game of the season the Tigers were knocked out of first place for the first time since May 9th, finishing with an 11-16 mark while the Twins closed 19-8. This pattern of limping to the close has happened in all four seasons that Jim Leyland has managed the Tigers. The 2009 collapse happened later in the season than the previous collapses:

• 2006: The team had a 76-36 record and a 10-game lead on August 7^th, they then went 19-31 the rest of the year and lost the division on the last day of the season to the Twins.  
• 2007: The Team had a 59-38 record which was the best record in baseball and a 2-game lead on July 23^rd. They got swept at Chicago in a double header the next day on route to a 29-36 finish. 
• 2008: After a horrible start, the team climbs back to a 52-49 record on July 23^rd. They were within 5 games of the White Sox. A blown save by Todd Jones against the White Sox starts a 22-39 run to end the season.

Starting Pitching: Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello were both terrific going down the stretch. Eddie Bonine did as well as can be expected from a 28-yr old career minor leaguer. Edwin Jackson lost three of his 4 starts, his whip wasn’t horrible as he walked only 8 batters, but he gave up 12 extra base hits and was hurt by some big innings. Nate Robertson was very ineffective and the one Figaro start was bad albeit brief.

Bullpen: In looking at the numbers, why was Fernando Rodney continuously trotted out? Between the 8th and 9th innings, Rodney pitched in 19 of the teams 37 games logging 19.1 innings in which he gave up 24 hits, 15 walks, and pitched to a 7.45 era. Brandon Lyon was very effective as was Perry. Miner was also very effective in every outing except his last when he was pulled 2 batters too late. Ni pitched great and it would of been nice to see more than 3.1 innings out of him. Figaro had an effective outing in Chicago picking up a win as the Tigers came back from a 5-0 deficit. Bobby Seay was clearly hurt and hopefully will be ready to go next spring. Fein, Rapada, Bonderman, and Galarraga all got in some mop-up duty.

A full baseball season can be broken into Nine 18-game segments. I have termed these 18-game segments as an “inning” of a season. In the past I have provided analysis of each “inning” at www.detroittigersweblog.com. For 2009, I am going to post the analysis on my own blog www.samhoff.com.

Let’s compare the first eight innings of 2009:

                                                                      Starters:         Bullpen:

       W-L  RS –RA     HR-SB-AVG/OBA/SLG    W-L- IP-  ERA     W-L-S-ERA

1st:  10-8  102-84     21-12-276/349/432    7-6-103.1-4.62    3-2-4-3.96

2nd:  10-8   99-86     20- 6-265/342/436    8-5-104.0-3.63    2-3-3-5.68

3rd:   9-9   67-65     14-13-252/317/370    9-8-114.1-3.23    0-1-5-4.23

4th:  12-6   85-84     29- 8-259/335/459    6-5- 97.2-4.98    6-1-6-4.08

5th:   7-11  70-76     23- 7-234/307/403    5-7-108.1-3.90    2-4-3-3.66

6th:  10-8   82-86     16- 7-268/338/412    6-6-113.2-4.75    4-2-5-3.44

7th:   9-9   74-85     25- 9-250/321/423    5-5-104.0-4.76    4-4-6-4.39

8th:  10-8   85-92     19- 7-267/355/425    7-5-101.1-4.88    3-3-6-5.28

The 10-8 eighth inning featured a 6-game winning streak immediately followed by a 5-game losing streak. Half of the defeats were to the worst team in the AL, KC, who outscored the Tigers 30-11. Overall, the Tigers were outscored by their opponents by 7 runs; marking the 4th inning in a row they were outscored. The good news is that the Twins were an identical 10-8 during the inning, while the White Sox were 9-9. Therefore the Tigers 4.5 game lead going into the 9th inning is the exact same that it was when the inning started on 8/27.

Starting Pitching: The Tigers starting pitching overall had a pedestrian 4.88 era. Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello were both very effective and Edwin Jackson battled to win 2 of his 3 starts. At this point, the 4th starter is a crap shoot. Nate Robertson had two very nice starts, and then on 9/11 gave up 6 hits and 5 walks in 3.2 innings before leaving with a groin injury. Washburn has been horrible while battling a knee injury which may keep him out for the season. Galarraga has elbow problems and pitched like he was pouring gasoline on a fire. The Tigers are so desperate for a 4th starter that Eddie Bonine is starting in the first game of the 9th inning. Bonine is 28 years old with a career 4.52 minor league ERA. He has been hit at the major league level for 341/378/564. A Tigers starter for the upcoming Sunday game in Minnesota has yet to be determined.

Bullpen: The bullpen had some very rough outings in the last inning and overall put up a very high ERA (5.28). Brandon Lyon was very effective and Zach Miner pitched well in 6 of his 7 appearances. Ni and Seay gave the Tigers a nice 1-2 lefty combination. Ryan Perry gave up a ton of base runners and looks to be hitting a wall. Fernando Rodney gave up multiple earned runs in 3 of 9 appearances. The Tigers must get Rodney back on track as making Lyon the closer leaves a big hole at setup.