Wed 1 Jun 2011
The 1/3 Mark of the 2011 Tiger’s Season
Posted by shoff under Baseball , Detroit , Tigers[16] Comments
I should really use this blog to post more stuff about Patti Engineering. I should be posting about our work with Siemens, Mitsubishi, and the other control products we have developed expertise with. I will state with conviction that I am very proud of our team at Patti Engineering. Having survived through the recent great recession, we are using the lessons learned to thrive in the present times. It is thanks to a superior team of problem solving engineers, as well as loyal customers that realize that not all engineers (or engineering companies) are created equal. Judging a highly educated person who is paid to think for a living strictly by an hourly rate is foolish. Now onto one of my passions, Tiger baseball:
Last Night the Tiger’s had a nice come from behind 8-7 victory over the reeling Minnesota Twins to complete the first third of the season at 28-26. If you want to know how a Tiger player’s stats project out for the season, take his stats today and multiply by three. Here are some observations from the first third of the Tiger’s 2011 campaign:
- In 2010, the average AL team scored 4.45 runs per game, which was the lowest output since 1992. This year, the average is 3% lower at 4.31 runs per game. The .253 league wide batting average is the lowest it has been since 1972!
- The Tiger’s are scoring 4.33 runs/game, but giving up 4.50. History shows that the Tiger’s are a bit lucky to be 28-26 and giving up more runs than you are scoring will more than likely lead to a sub .500 record by the end of the year.
- The Tiger’s in 2010 stood at 28-26 and were in second place, 3.5 games behind the Twins. They have the exact same record in 2011, again are in second place, but this year they are 5 games behind the Indians.
- Under Jim Leyland, the Tigers have a .537 win% in the first third of a season, .567 in the second third, and .461 in the last third.
- Second Base:
- Our projected starting 2B (Carlos Guillen) has not played yet this year and likely will not play before the all star break.
- Our opening day 2B (Will Rhymes) held the position through the end of April then was demoted to Toledo.
- May brought Scott Sizemore, who went 3-4 in his first game. A sub .200 average in his next 16 games got him sent to Oakland where he is starting for Sacramento. Batting over .400 at AAA this year seems to indicate that he will eventually hit Major League Pitching and the Tiger’s were too impatient with him.
- When Sizemore was traded on May 26, Ryan Raburn was named the starting 2B. This is despite the fact that he had started 47 games at 2B in his Tiger Career and according to Baseball Info Solutions would cost the Tiger’s 25 runs over full season with his poor fielding at that position. He has started 2 of 5 games since that proclamation. With his .197 batting average, he does seem fit for the role.
- Jhonny Peralta (310/370/536) and Victor Martinez (301/360/493) have been very good pickups by Dave Dombrowski. Peralta provides only average defense, but not many teams get that kind of production from a SS. V-Mart has caught 30% of his games giving Avila rest against tough LH starters.
- Give the Tiger’s credit for being patient with Avila. In 2011, he has already more HRs (8 v 7) and almost as many RBI (29 v 31) compared to his poor sophomore showing in 2010.
- Austin Jackson is having a poor sophomore year, but the Tigers must be patient with him. He plays too good of defense and has too much of a track record in the minors to think that the poor start in 2011 is anything more than an aberration.
- The starting pitching has been stable. Until Phil Coke twisted his ankle, the Tiger’s had been trotting the same 5 guys out there. The Starters overall are 20-16 with a 3.94 ERA and have been averaging 6 1/3 innings pitched per start.
- The Bullpen has been a struggle with a 5.26 cumulative ERA. Ryan Perry, Brad Thomas, and Joaquin Benoit have all been disappointing. The bullpen needs to get settled or it will be a LONG season at Comerica.
- For the Tigers to win the division, the following needs to happen:
- The Bullpen needs to get settled with guys having assigned roles and performing well when called on.
- The 2B situation needs to be rectified. Ryan Raburn is NOT the answer (as he can’t field the position) and I don’t think Danny Worth will hit enough to be the answer. Maybe a healthy Carlos Guillen helps. Maybe they recycle someone off of the scrap heap. Maybe Will Rhymes comes back up and hits more like he did last year.
- Magglio has to return and be productive.
- It is Leyland’s last year under contract, and I don’t see him returning unless he wins the division. Dave Dombrowski, the GM, is under the same situation. I can see the Tiger’s giving Dombrowski a pass based on the stockpile of Arms he has built up in the minor leagues.