Patti Engineering Insight

On this Holiday Season in 2011 I want to thank our team, clients, and partners for helping us make 2011 a record year at Patti Engineering as we surpassed Six Million Dollars in Sales. From the beginning, Patti Engineering has been built by getting repeat business from a core group of outstanding clients. Our partnerships and expertise with some outstanding products and companies have helped us deliver value to those clients. I feel truly blessed and humbled to be surrounded with such an outstanding team every day. Our team is second to none in their expertise, drive, and focus on solutions to our client’s problems.

In celebrating our accomplishments this past year, I am very proud to reflect back on just two short years ago, when like many companies, 2009 was all about survival. The lessons we learned during the “great recession” were invaluable and have helped to take us where we are today. If you would like, please read on to see five valuable lessons we have learned:

• Focus on what you know best: We have focused on our invaluable partnerships with Siemens and Mitsubishi and for the most part exclusively worked with these two PLC platforms. With non-PLC platforms, we focus on only products we know best such as embedded C, Steeplechase VLC, Iconics, Indusoft, and .NET.
• You must have the right people on the bus and they must be autonomously driven: The sentence above steals from two books that have had a profound influence on our organization. “Good to Great” by Jim Collins looks at organizations that have made the leap to excellence, while “Drive” by Daniel Pink examines how employees of the 21^st century are motivated.  Autonomy is what a team of highly educated engineers at companies like Patti Engineering desire. They do not want to, nor function best by punching a time clock, having their computers monitored, or having someone constantly looking over their shoulder. Instead they want to focus on what they know best, getting our clients issues solved in the most efficient and effective way possible.
• Find out why your clients work with you: We did a survey of our clients and found the reasons they work with us is: our collective intellect; being a trusted advisor; thoroughly researching solutions; and being responsive. Our collective intellect and expertise with certain products leads our clients to us initially. As a trusted advisor, we will tell a client if a project is not in our wheelhouse and recommend an expert in that area if possible. Thoroughly researching solutions means that the second person in command at Patti Engineering, Dave Foster, reviews all proposals to ensure that we have a thorough understanding of the scope and have well defined our deliverables to our client. Being responsive means that clients can reach us 24/7 when their issues can’t wait until the next day’s business hours.
• You have the right to say no: Not all clients are created equal and we have the right to decide which clients we want to work with. I have talked to many other companies that when given an opportunity to propose a project, will always do so. This is a very dangerous path for an organization. If our expertise is not a fit for the project, or the customer is not a fit for our organization, the project is not worth it at any price. It will end up being a drain on our team and will take away from the projects and clients that we work best with.
• Honest Self Reflection: the most important lesson that we have learned is that we must keep improving every day. On an individual level, we all must look in the mirror and give ourselves an honest critique. We must continue to learn and improve our organization. Once the honest improvement starts at the top, it will filter through to the rest of the team.

Thanks again for letting us share these lessons with you and please feel free to give me feedback or additional lessons that you feel are valuable. Please have a great Holiday Season in 2011. We cannot wait for 2012 to start so that we can strive to make Patti Engineering into the best control systems integration company in the world!

Here is my recap of my simulated finals of the NCAA Playoffs which took place the same day as the real finals (1/10/11):

Monday January 10, 2011 (Game played in New Orleans, LA):

• Oregon (2) 31 – Stanford (4) 29: In a game for the ages, Oregon got the win on a last second 35-yard field goal by sophomore Rob Beard. The game was much closer than the earlier contest this season when Oregon blew out the Cardinal by three touchdowns on October 2 (52-31). In that October 2 game in Eugene, the Cardinal were outscored 28-0 in the second half thanks in part to three costly turnovers. Tonight the Cardinal protected the ball with no turnovers. QB Andrew Luck had over 300 yards through the air for the Cardinal, but in the end the Ducks, lead by Sophomore QB Derron Thomas, who had 222 yards passing to go along with 55 yards running, came out victorious.

Summary:

• Looking at the real life 2010 college season, Stanford may have been the best team in the country. The predictor in the Jeff Sagarin ratings, which is the basis for the lines at many books, indicates this. They had one bad half of football all season (October 2, 2010 in Eugene).
• In a playoff, rarely does the best team win, but in a playoff, every team that deserves a shot to win a championship gets that shot.
• I feel bad for the kids on the TCU team that rolled over every opponent this season and outscored their opponents by an average of 41 to 12. They were 13-0, but because they did not play in a “power” conference, did not get a shot to play for the championship.  
• Some people will question why the simulation did not have Auburn in the Finals. In real life Auburn was 14-0, but an interesting fact is that seven of those games were won by 8 or less points. Without Cam Newton, Auburn may well have had four losses. In my simulation, I had Cam Newton hurting his ankle. In any playoff, luck plays an important factor, and Auburn would not have been able to survive an injury to Newton.
• One thing that I very much dislike about College Football is the weak non-conference schedule that most teams play in order to protect their hopes of going undefeated. For instance Auburn played Arkansas State, Louisiana Monroe, and Chattanooga, Oregon played New Mexico and Portland State (winning 72-0 and 69-0). In a playoff situation, where a conference winner is guaranteed a spot, power teams would more than likely be scheduling other power teams for their early season non-conference schedule as they would want to prepare conference play.
• The BCS Championship game was not even shown on network TV as ESPN carried the game. Could you even imagine the attention that a 16-team playoff would draw to College Football?
• Presently, the NCAA is so against a playoff that they will not even allow Electronic Arts to program on into their Video Game. Hopefully in the next decade, the NCAA will see the light.

Here is my recap of my simulated quarter finals of the NCAA Playoffs which took place Christmas Weekend:

Friday:

• Oregon (2) 48 – Boise St (7) 44 (Tempe, AZ): Boise St, who according to the composite computer ratings is the third best team in the Country, lost a close one to Oregon. Both offenses moved up and down the field, but a last minute TD on a scramble by quarterback Darron Thomas brought Oregon the victory.  

Saturday:

• TCU (3) 24 – Ohio State (6) – 7 (Miami, FL): TCU proved their legitimacy as a three seed by soundly defeating Ohio State 24-7.  The TCU defense held Terelle Pryor and his mates to under 200 yards of total offense.  TCU was lead on offense by 158 yards rushing by 5’ 9” sophomore running back Ed Wesley. TCU protected the ball and did not have any turnovers, where as Ohio State Junior QB Terelle Pryor, dealing with off field issues, threw 3 picks.
• Stanford (4) 33 – Va Tech (12) 21 (Tempe, AZ): Va Tech played hard and at half held a 21-14 lead. Stanford Junior Quarterback Andrew Luck took over the second half leading three long scoring drives and the Stanford defense completely shut down Va Tech and Sr. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor.
• Arkansas (8) 35 – Auburn (1) – 24 (Miami, FL): In the only upset of the day, Arkansas beat bang up Auburn 35-24. Auburn Junior Quarterback Cam Newton tried to play on a severely sprained ankle but had lost most of his running ability. Forced to throw the ball and become a pocket passer, Newton struggled completing less than 50% of his passes and throwing a couple of picks. Junior QB Ryan Mallett, who was knocked out of the previous loss to Auburn, played a very effective game completing 22-31 passes for 259 yards.

Summary:

• Three of the top 4 seeds have made the semi finals, with Arkansas, at #8, being the surprise team remaining.
• The Big Ten conference has no teams in the final four. Stanford and Oregon represent the Pac-10, Arkansas the SEC, and TCU the Mountain West.
• TV Ratings were off the charts!!

Next Weekends Matchups to be played in Pasadena, CA (The Rose Bowl Location), times EST:

• Saturday 3pm (Pasadena, CA) – Arkansas (8) vs Stanford (4)
• Saturday 8pm (Pasadena, CA) – TCU (3) vs  Oregon (2)

Here is my recap of my simulated first weekend of the NCAA Playoffs:

Thursday:

• Ohio State (6) 28 – LSU (11) 21: Ohio State used the home field advantage to pull out a very close 28-21 win over LSU. LSU, a seasoned team having played 6 games during the season against top 30 teams during the season gave Ohio State all they could handle, but at the end Terrelle Pryor broke of a 24 yard TD with 5 minutes to go and the OSU defense stood.
• Oregon (2) 48 – Miami-OH (15) 10: This game was 34-0 at halftime and Oregon used the second half to rest most of their starters. About as close to a bye as a team can have.

Friday:

• Fla Int (16) 21 – Auburn (1) – 34: Florida International, who at one time during the 2010 campaign was 0-4, was actually winning this game 14-13 at halftime. A severe ankle sprain to Cam Newton in the first quarter seemed to take the wind out of Auburn. Cinderella’s slipper fell off in the second half as Barrett Trotter (Newton’s backup) kept possession of the ball for nearly 22 minutes in the second half completing 3 long TD drives.
• Boise St (10) 35 – Oklahoma (7) – 34: In a rematch of the infamous 2007 Fiesta Bowl that put Boise St on the map, The Broncos once again got the best of the Sooners. The Broncos went for it on 3 critical fourth downs during the game avoiding having to have snake bit Kyle Brotzman attempt a field goal (he was 5-5 on extra points). A touchdown pass from Kellen Moore to Austin Pettis with 37 seconds to go tied the game. Relief came over the Bronco fans when Brotzman made the extra point.

Saturday:

• Va Tech (12) 31 – Wisconsin (5) – 28: In the NCAA basketball tourney, it seems like every year at least one 5 seed is upset by a 12 seed. The NCAA football tourney proved the same. Va Tech, who started the season 0-2 with loses to Boise St and James Madison continued their hot steak with their 12th straight win 31-28 on the road at Wisconsin. A last second drive lead by Wisconsin QB Scott Tolzien finished short of the End Zone.
• Mich St (9) 17 - Arkansas (8) – 38: In a lopsided affair, MSU was never close. The Score was 21-0 at Halftime as Jason Mallett chewed up the MSU secondary in the first half.
• Connecticut (14) 10 – Texas Christian (45): TCU seemed hell bent on proving to everyone how good they are by pummeling the Big East Champion Connecticut Huskies 45-10. The Score was 35-10 at half time as the Horned Frogs rolled up nearly 350 first half total yards.
• Central Florida (13) 7 – Stanford (4) 41: The Cardinal rolled all over the UCF 41-7. Andrew Luck put the Stanford up 28-0 at halftime and then did not play beyond the first drive of the second half. UCF was never in the game.

Summary:

• Seeds 1-4 (Auburn, Oregon, TCU, and Stanford) all won, three of them by blowouts. Auburn had the closest game and may have lost Cam Newton for the rest of the tournament.
• There were 2 upsets as Boise St (10th) and Va Tech (12th) each won on the road against higher seeds.
• MSU and Wisconsin loses leave the Big 10 with only Ohio State left. Both Pac-10 teams (Oregon and Stanford) advanced easily. The SEC has two remaining teams (Auburn and Arkansas) having split their two games against Big 10 teams.

Next Weekends Matchups (notice 2 games played in the previous Fiesta and Orange Bowl Locations):

• Friday 7pm (Tempe, AZ) - Boise St (10) vs Oregon (2)
• Saturday 1pm (Miami, FL) – Ohio State (6) vs TCU (3)
• Saturday 5pm (Tempe, AZ) - Va Tech (12) vs  Stanford (4)
• Saturday 8pm (Miami, FL) – Arkansas (8) vs Auburn (1)

This is the post where I am going to offer ideas for turning around the city of Detroit. These are my opinions, and are completely subjective. I absolutely believe that the City of Detroit can comeback. It will not be easy or quick, but it can certainly be done!

Quit Feeling Sorry for ourselves: Time Magazine ran a several stories last fall on Detroit and the problems it is encountering. One theme in the articles is how the great city of Detroit was ravaged by decline of the auto industry, the over-empowerment of the UAW, and “white flight” after the riots of 1967. A common theme for the national media is to look on Detroit and southeastern Michigan with pity, and many in this area soak up the pity and feel sorry for their plight.

Well, all of these things are ancient history. Almost every city in the US had riots in the late 1960s, yet we are the only region that still talks about how great things were before the riots, like we were destined to this fate 42 years ago?

In addition let’s face facts that the auto industry is all but gone from Michigan along with the 100k+ plus jobs for unskilled laborers. Many industries have come and gone from other regions. How much meatpacking still takes place in Chicago? Where is the textile industry?

Our region has great colleges, a nice cool climate, plenty of fresh water, no worries about wildfires, hurricanes, earthquakes or other natural disasters, but we need to stop feeling sorry for ourselves! Few individuals or businesses are going to be attracted to our area until we pull ourselves up by our bootstraps and forget about the assent and descent of this region during the 20th century!

Fire up the bulldozers: Blight is bad! Blight gives crack heads and meth addicts a place to hide and hookers a place to work. If a residence is run down or boarded up, the city needs to foreclose on the property. They need to bulldoze the property and setup a land bank that can clean the title and offer the property for resale later.

As big of a Tiger Fan that I am, I could not in good conscience cry too loud when the City of Detroit cleared the old Tiger Stadium. Yes, there were lots of proposals to revamp the property, and for sure there were probably tons of buildings in worse shape that needed to come down. But one more empty blighted building that is brought down is one less eyesore we have to see and one less crack house the Detroit Police have to bust.

Make people feel safe: No one will move into the city until they feel safe. Detroit has a huge crime problem and unfortunately there is no way to turn it around overnight. What you can do, is take a small section of the city, patrol it like crazy, let word out on the street that the book will be thrown at anyone committing a crime in that area. I have heard from old-timers in Chicago that this is what Daley did in the Michigan Avenue corridor in the early 1970′s. I would start with the Woodward Avenue Corridor.

Build more Public Transportation: For a long time Detroit shunned public transportation because they wanted to promote automobile usage. Because the key to growth in the 21st century for our city does not lie in the auto industry, we need more public transportation. One thing that has been proposed (and just recently got Federal Funding) is the light rail to go down Woodward Avenue. I would build this ASAP and push for it to extend all the way to Birmingham.

Entice Young Professionals to live in the city: We spend a lot of political time, money, and resources trying to help our state schools educate our best young people. Unfortunately, many of these bright students graduate from a Michigan college and promptly leave the state. How do you entice young people to live in the city? Help them pay their student loans. I would institute a program where young people could deduct their student loans amounts from their property taxes.

Fix the Public Schools: In a recent test, DPS (Detroit Public Schools) students posted the worst score in the history of the test. The DPS is dysfunctional. Because of the shrinking population, there are way too many half full schools. DPS needs to undergo a consolidation of buildings. In addition, they need to institute a voucher system within the city so that the DPS can have some competition and those bright students who want a better education can obtain it. Thanks to the state appointing Robert Bobb, a turnaround of DPS has started to happen.

Ethnic Diversity is critical for all parts of SE Michigan: Detroit is 82% black and 10% white, If you go up Woodward avenue and get north of 8 Mile (the border of Detroit), you hit Ferndale which is 90% white and 3% black, the next city north is Royal Oak which is 94% white and less than 2% black, just north of that is Birmingham which is 95% white and less than 1% black!

Something is seriously wrong with this. You have generations of kids in Detroit who rarely see white people in their schools. Conversely, in many Oakland County Schools, a black person is a rarity.  Meanwhile, Chicago is 37% Black, 31% White, and 26% Latino which is a good balanced mix. How do you fix this? I am not sure, but it is the toughest and most important issue on this list. Personally I would like to see the religious leaders of both groups get together to address this issue. People in this region need to realize that just because we have different skin tones; it does not make us opponents.

I love Michigan, I love Detroit, and I hope someday my children will be proud to not only say I am from Detroit, but I live in Detroit and it is a great place to be!

Having now spent the majority of my life in the Midwest, I can say that I am proud to be associated with the region. People in the Midwest have grit. They are not narcissistic and their family is the most important thing in their life. Two cities that display the Midwestern persona are Chicago and Detroit.

Separated by only 4 hours across I-94, the cities are worlds apart. According to www.city-data.com, using 2007 statistics, Chicago has an average income of $45,505 while Detroit is $28,097. Chicago has an average home price of $286,800 while Detroit is $100,351. 33.8% of Detroit lives in poverty compared to 20.5% for Chicago.  The murder rate per 100,000 in Detroit has averaged 41 over the last 10 years, more than twice the rate in Chicago (19).

With this post and my next one I am going to compare Detroit and Chicago, two cities that at one time were similar, but have since grown very much apart. I am going to highlight some of the problems I see with the City of Detroit and the Southeastern Michigan as a whole. I am going to break up my analysis into two posts, because I have many opinions on the subject.  I will apologize now if I offend anyone, please understand that these are only my personal opinions.

Let’s explore the population of each city. Today Chicago has a population of 2,853,000 people (density of 12,569/sq-mi), and Detroit has a population of 912,000 (density of 6,378/sq-mi). Each city reached their peak population in 1950 before the birth of suburbs. Since 1950, Chicago has lost 21% of its population while Detroit has lost a staggering 51%.

Historical Population Density 

As you can see from the chart above between 1950-1990 Detroit and Chicago experienced similar population loses, but since 1990 Chicago has actually added resident since 1990 (+2%), while Detroit has continued in a death spiral(-11%). The death spiral will not turn around anytime soon as new construction single family permits over the last 12 years have averaged 175 per year in Detroit and 1,000 in Chicago.

It’s NOT Jobs within the City?

From 1990 – 2000 Chicago workers LOST close to 70,000 jobs within the city while Detroit workers lost a lower percentage and only 15,000 jobs. Yet the population of Chicago grew by 2%, while the population of Detroit shrunk by 11%. The reason for this phenomenon is that many more Chicago workers are now commuting from the city to a job in the suburbs.

I am reminded of my niece, Allison, who lives in downtown San Francisco near the baseball stadium, yet works for HP about 45 minutes away in the suburbs. Like many young urban professionals she and her fiance enjoy living in an urban setting, have no kids, and do not have time to worry about the upkeep of a house. They can walk or take a cab to a local restaurant and do not have to worry about the legal consequences of having to return home if they have a couple of adult beverages.

My niece Allison’s story would be rare for Detroit. Very few young professionals live in the city. The people in the suburbs only go to Detroit to see a ball game, show, or visit a casino. Young professionals, like my niece who has an engineering degree from Michigan State, are leaving this region in droves.

I grew up in the Baltimore-Washington Suburbs and have through my business travelled to most of the major cities in this country. I can tell you I have never been to an area as dysfunctional as Southeastern Michigan. The City of Detroit and the Suburbs surrounding it do nothing but bicker with each other.

There is so much distrust for the suburbs that a suburbanite, Robert  Thompson, who was educated in Detroit, was going to donate $200 million dollars to the Detroit Public Schools was told to get lost because he wanted too much control of how his money was going to get spent. More recently, this region almost lost its last showpiece event, The North American Auto Show,  when the city fought with the suburbs and state over the much needed redevelopment of the Cobo Center.

I know many of my neighbors in the suburbs, would like to forget about the city of Detroit. But, the city is the heart of this area. Like a human being cannot live without a heart, this region cannot survive without a healthy city of Detroit. It takes my suburban neighbors working with the city, not being elitist. 

Most importantly, it will take leadership in the city government that accepts responsibility, creates a safe atmosphere, and encourages immigration. I love this area, and I sincerely hope in my lifetime we can see a renaissance in Detroit. But hope is not a strategy, so in my next post, I am going to offer some ideas I have on the issue.

A full baseball season can be broken into nine 18-game segments. I have termed these 18-game segments as an “inning” of a season. The 9th inning of 2009 provided an extra game as the Tigers and Twins hooked up for an exciting but deflating one game playoff.

Let’s compare the nine innings of 2009:

                                                                      Starters:         Bullpen:

       W-L  RS –RA     HR-SB-AVG/OBA/SLG    W-L- IP-  ERA     W-L-S-ERA

1st:  10-8  102-84     21-12-276/349/432    7-6-103.1-4.62    3-2-4-3.96

2nd:  10-8   99-86     20- 6-265/342/436    8-5-104.0-3.63    2-3-3-5.68

3rd:   9-9   67-65     14-13-252/317/370    9-8-114.1-3.23    0-1-5-4.23

4th:  12-6   85-84     29- 8-259/335/459    6-5- 97.2-4.98    6-1-6-4.08

5th:   7-11  70-76     23- 7-234/307/403    5-7-108.1-3.90    2-4-3-3.66

6th:  10-8   82-86     16- 7-268/338/412    6-6-113.2-4.75    4-2-5-3.44

7th:   9-9   74-85     25- 9-250/321/423    5-5-104.0-4.76    4-4-6-4.39

8th:  10-8   85-92     19- 7-267/355/425    7-5-101.1-4.88    3-3-6-5.28

9th:   9-10  79-87     16- 3-271/351/390    7-8-109.1-4.45    2-2-5-4.13

On Sunday September 6 the Tigers completed a sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays. The Tigers were 14 games over .500 and had a 7 game lead on the second place Minnesota Twins who were at exactly .500. The Tigers used their whole roster that magical weekend at TB which featured late inning wins in every game. Exactly one month later on the 163rd game of the season the Tigers were knocked out of first place for the first time since May 9th, finishing with an 11-16 mark while the Twins closed 19-8. This pattern of limping to the close has happened in all four seasons that Jim Leyland has managed the Tigers. The 2009 collapse happened later in the season than the previous collapses:

• 2006: The team had a 76-36 record and a 10-game lead on August 7^th, they then went 19-31 the rest of the year and lost the division on the last day of the season to the Twins.  
• 2007: The Team had a 59-38 record which was the best record in baseball and a 2-game lead on July 23^rd. They got swept at Chicago in a double header the next day on route to a 29-36 finish. 
• 2008: After a horrible start, the team climbs back to a 52-49 record on July 23^rd. They were within 5 games of the White Sox. A blown save by Todd Jones against the White Sox starts a 22-39 run to end the season.

Starting Pitching: Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello were both terrific going down the stretch. Eddie Bonine did as well as can be expected from a 28-yr old career minor leaguer. Edwin Jackson lost three of his 4 starts, his whip wasn’t horrible as he walked only 8 batters, but he gave up 12 extra base hits and was hurt by some big innings. Nate Robertson was very ineffective and the one Figaro start was bad albeit brief.

Bullpen: In looking at the numbers, why was Fernando Rodney continuously trotted out? Between the 8th and 9th innings, Rodney pitched in 19 of the teams 37 games logging 19.1 innings in which he gave up 24 hits, 15 walks, and pitched to a 7.45 era. Brandon Lyon was very effective as was Perry. Miner was also very effective in every outing except his last when he was pulled 2 batters too late. Ni pitched great and it would of been nice to see more than 3.1 innings out of him. Figaro had an effective outing in Chicago picking up a win as the Tigers came back from a 5-0 deficit. Bobby Seay was clearly hurt and hopefully will be ready to go next spring. Fein, Rapada, Bonderman, and Galarraga all got in some mop-up duty.

A full baseball season can be broken into Nine 18-game segments. I have termed these 18-game segments as an “inning” of a season. In the past I have provided analysis of each “inning” at www.detroittigersweblog.com. For 2009, I am going to post the analysis on my own blog www.samhoff.com.

Let’s compare the first eight innings of 2009:

                                                                      Starters:         Bullpen:

       W-L  RS –RA     HR-SB-AVG/OBA/SLG    W-L- IP-  ERA     W-L-S-ERA

1st:  10-8  102-84     21-12-276/349/432    7-6-103.1-4.62    3-2-4-3.96

2nd:  10-8   99-86     20- 6-265/342/436    8-5-104.0-3.63    2-3-3-5.68

3rd:   9-9   67-65     14-13-252/317/370    9-8-114.1-3.23    0-1-5-4.23

4th:  12-6   85-84     29- 8-259/335/459    6-5- 97.2-4.98    6-1-6-4.08

5th:   7-11  70-76     23- 7-234/307/403    5-7-108.1-3.90    2-4-3-3.66

6th:  10-8   82-86     16- 7-268/338/412    6-6-113.2-4.75    4-2-5-3.44

7th:   9-9   74-85     25- 9-250/321/423    5-5-104.0-4.76    4-4-6-4.39

8th:  10-8   85-92     19- 7-267/355/425    7-5-101.1-4.88    3-3-6-5.28

The 10-8 eighth inning featured a 6-game winning streak immediately followed by a 5-game losing streak. Half of the defeats were to the worst team in the AL, KC, who outscored the Tigers 30-11. Overall, the Tigers were outscored by their opponents by 7 runs; marking the 4th inning in a row they were outscored. The good news is that the Twins were an identical 10-8 during the inning, while the White Sox were 9-9. Therefore the Tigers 4.5 game lead going into the 9th inning is the exact same that it was when the inning started on 8/27.

Starting Pitching: The Tigers starting pitching overall had a pedestrian 4.88 era. Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello were both very effective and Edwin Jackson battled to win 2 of his 3 starts. At this point, the 4th starter is a crap shoot. Nate Robertson had two very nice starts, and then on 9/11 gave up 6 hits and 5 walks in 3.2 innings before leaving with a groin injury. Washburn has been horrible while battling a knee injury which may keep him out for the season. Galarraga has elbow problems and pitched like he was pouring gasoline on a fire. The Tigers are so desperate for a 4th starter that Eddie Bonine is starting in the first game of the 9th inning. Bonine is 28 years old with a career 4.52 minor league ERA. He has been hit at the major league level for 341/378/564. A Tigers starter for the upcoming Sunday game in Minnesota has yet to be determined.

Bullpen: The bullpen had some very rough outings in the last inning and overall put up a very high ERA (5.28). Brandon Lyon was very effective and Zach Miner pitched well in 6 of his 7 appearances. Ni and Seay gave the Tigers a nice 1-2 lefty combination. Ryan Perry gave up a ton of base runners and looks to be hitting a wall. Fernando Rodney gave up multiple earned runs in 3 of 9 appearances. The Tigers must get Rodney back on track as making Lyon the closer leaves a big hole at setup.

A full baseball season can be broken into Nine 18-game segments. I have termed these 18-game segments as an “inning” of a season. In the past I have provided analysis of each “inning” at www.detroittigersweblog.com. For 2009, I am going to post the analysis on my own blog www.samhoff.com.

Let’s compare the first seven innings of 2009:

                                                                      Starters:         Bullpen:

       W-L  RS –RA     HR-SB-AVG/OBA/SLG    W-L- IP-  ERA     W-L-S-ERA

1st:  10-8  102-84     21-12-276/349/432    7-6-103.1-4.62    3-2-4-3.96

2nd:  10-8   99-86     20- 6-265/342/436    8-5-104.0-3.63    2-3-3-5.68

3rd:   9-9   67-65     14-13-252/317/370    9-8-114.1-3.23    0-1-5-4.23

4th:  12-6   85-84     29- 8-259/335/459    6-5- 97.2-4.98    6-1-6-4.08

5th:   7-11  70-76     23- 7-234/307/403    5-7-108.1-3.90    2-4-3-3.66

6th:  10-8   82-86     16- 7-268/338/412    6-6-113.2-4.75    4-2-5-3.44

7th:   9-9   74-85     25- 9-250/321/423    5-5-104.0-4.76    4-4-6-4.39

The seventh inning saw the Tigers finish 9-9. The Tigers started out the inning 1-4 after losing the first 3 games in Boston which included a controversial brawl and the Rick Porcello suspension. The Tigers went a respectable 8-5 after that while outscoring their opponents 54-46. The Tiger’s gained in the Central division race as the Twins (10-8) and the White Sox (7-10) had their own struggles. 

Starting Pitching: The Tigers starting pitching was pretty mediocre (4.75 era). Justin Verlander continues to roll up strikeouts (31 in 27.2 innings) and his 2-0 win against Boston on August 13 may be the turning point in the Tigers season. Galarraga was pretty effective in 2 starts then was strangely sent down to Toledo with elbow inflammation. Rick Porcello only pitched 12 innings thanks impart to his 2nd inning ejection at Boston. Washburn was very effective for a guy who gave up 7 HRs in 26 innings. After having no run support all year, Edwin Jackson got 2 wins despite pitching very ineffectively.

A full baseball season can be broken into Nine 18-game segments. I have termed these 18-game segments as an “inning” of a season. In the past I have provided analysis of each “inning” at www.detroittigersweblog.com. For 2009, I am going to post the analysis on my own blog www.samhoff.com.

Let’s compare the first six innings of 2009:

                                                                      Starters:         Bullpen:

       W-L  RS –RA     HR-SB-AVG/OBA/SLG    W-L- IP-  ERA     W-L-S-ERA

1st:  10-8  102-84     21-12-276/349/432    7-6-103.1-4.62    3-2-4-3.96

2nd:  10-8   99-86     20- 6-265/342/436    8-5-104.0-3.63    2-3-3-5.68

3rd:   9-9   67-65     14-13-252/317/370    9-8-114.1-3.23    0-1-5-4.23

4th:  12-6   85-84     29- 8-259/335/459    6-5- 97.2-4.98    6-1-6-4.08

5th:   7-11  70-76     23- 7-234/307/403    5-7-108.1-3.90    2-4-3-3.66

6th:  10-8   82-86     16- 7-268/338/412    6-6-113.2-4.75    4-2-5-3.44

The sixth inning saw the Tigers finish 10-8 for the 3rd time in 2009. The Tigers were outscored by 4 runs, but helped by a 7-3 record in one and two run games. Interestingly, the Tigers had identical 29-25 records in the first two thirds of the 2009 season, but digging deeper you find that the Tigers outscored their opponents by 33 in the first third, but were outscored by 9 in the second third.

The last third of the season is going to be critical for the Tigers and especially Jim Leyland. The Tigers under Leyland (2005 to 2009) have a combined .533 winning percentage in the first 54 games of the seasons. They have a combined .570 winning percentage in the middle third of seasons. In the final third of seasons, they have a combined .407 winning percentage. In fact, their worst performance in every single year has been in the last third. Many people have a lot of respect for Jim Leyland, but he consistently seems to lose his team down the stretch. I sincerely hope 2009 proves to be different.

Starting Pitching: In the ten games Verlander, Jackson, and Porcello started the Tigers were 8-2. The two other wins were the game Eddie Bonine was called up from Toledo and gave a respectable performance in the second half of a double header verses the White Sox, and a 10-8 win against the Twins where Galarraga was far from sharp. Washburn was swapped for French to try to reverse this trend, though it didn’t work on the first try. For the season, the Tigers are 40-25 when the big-3 (Verlander, Jackson, and Porcello) pitch. They are 18-25 in all other games.