Last Night the Tiger’s had a nice come from behind 8-7 victory over the reeling Minnesota Twins to complete the first third of the season at 28-26. If you want to know how a Tiger player’s stats project out for the season, take his stats today and multiply by three. Here are some observations from the first third of the Tiger’s 2011 campaign:

• In 2010, the average AL team scored 4.45 runs per game, which was the lowest output since 1992. This year, the average is 3% lower at 4.31 runs per game. The .253 league wide batting average is the lowest it has been since 1972!
• The Tiger’s are scoring 4.33 runs/game, but giving up 4.50. History shows that the Tiger’s are a bit lucky to be 28-26 and giving up more runs than you are scoring will more than likely lead to a sub .500 record by the end of the year.
• The Tiger’s in 2010 stood at 28-26 and were in second place, 3.5 games behind the Twins. They have the exact same record in 2011, again are in second place, but this year they are 5 games behind the Indians.
• Under Jim Leyland, the Tigers have a .537 win% in the first third of a season, .567 in the second third, and .461 in the last third.
• Second Base:
  • Our projected starting 2B (Carlos Guillen) has not played yet this year and likely will not play before the all star break.
  • Our opening day 2B (Will Rhymes) held the position through the end of April then was demoted to Toledo.
  • May brought Scott Sizemore, who went 3-4 in his first game. A sub .200 average in his next 16 games got him sent to Oakland where he is starting for Sacramento. Batting over .400 at AAA this year seems to indicate that he will eventually hit Major League Pitching and the Tiger’s were too impatient with him.
  • When Sizemore was traded on May 26, Ryan Raburn was named the starting 2B. This is despite the fact that he had started 47 games at 2B in his Tiger Career and according to Baseball Info Solutions would cost the Tiger’s 25 runs over full season with his poor fielding at that position. He has started 2 of 5 games since that proclamation. With his .197 batting average, he does seem fit for the role.
• Jhonny Peralta (310/370/536) and Victor Martinez (301/360/493) have been very good pickups by Dave Dombrowski. Peralta provides only average defense, but not many teams get that kind of production from a SS. V-Mart has caught 30% of his games giving Avila rest against tough LH starters.
• Give the Tiger’s credit for being patient with Avila. In 2011, he has already more HRs (8 v 7) and almost as many RBI (29 v 31) compared to his poor sophomore showing in 2010.
• Austin Jackson is having a poor sophomore year, but the Tigers must be patient with him. He plays too good of defense and has too much of a track record in the minors to think that the poor start in 2011 is anything more than an aberration.
• The starting pitching has been stable. Until Phil Coke twisted his ankle, the Tiger’s had been trotting the same 5 guys out there. The Starters overall are 20-16 with a 3.94 ERA and have been averaging 6 1/3 innings pitched per start.
• The Bullpen has been a struggle with a 5.26 cumulative ERA. Ryan Perry, Brad Thomas, and Joaquin Benoit have all been disappointing. The bullpen needs to get settled or it will be a LONG season at Comerica.
• For the Tigers to win the division, the following needs to happen:
  • The Bullpen needs to get settled with guys having assigned roles and performing well when called on.
  • The 2B situation needs to be rectified. Ryan Raburn is NOT the answer (as he can’t field the position) and I don’t think Danny Worth will hit enough to be the answer. Maybe a healthy Carlos Guillen helps. Maybe they recycle someone off of the scrap heap. Maybe Will Rhymes comes back up and hits more like he did last year.
  • Magglio has to return and be productive.
• It is Leyland’s last year under contract, and I don’t see him returning unless he wins the division. Dave Dombrowski, the GM, is under the same situation. I can see the Tiger’s giving Dombrowski a pass based on the stockpile of Arms he has built up in the minor leagues.

                                                                              Starters:         Bullpen:

       W-L  RS –RA     HR-SB-AVG/OBA/SLG    W-L- IP-  ERA     W-L-S-ERA

2010: 10-8  84-85     10- 6-278/375/413    4-5-96.2-5.51    6-3-6-2.32

2009: 10-8  102-84     21-12-276/349/432    7-6-103.1-4.62    3-2-4-3.96

2008:  6-12 74 -112    15-10-262/345/404    3-9- 96.2-5.96    3-3-3-5.28

2007: 10-8  86 -79     17- 9-235/313/380    5-2-110.2-3.66    5-6-8-4.68

2006: 11-7  89 -69     30- 5-281/332/496   10-7-107.2-4.01    1-0-5-3.10

The start of the 2010 was a weird success. 14 of the first 20 games the Tigers play are on the road, and as the first inning ends the Tigers were close to ending an 11-day, 11-game, 7,000 mile road trip. I have been keeping my “innings” on the Tigers since 2007 and this was an inning of extremes. The lowest bullpen ERA in an inning, the least amount of HRs in an inning, one of the highest starter ERAs, and one of the highest on base percentages.

The starting pitching struggles hark back to the issues the starters had two years ago, but thanks to a lights out bullpen the team was 10-8 despite being outscored. On offense, the team had their highest on base percentage for an inning since the 4th inning of 2007, but hit only 10 homeruns (only 1 by someone not from Venezuela).

If the Tigers can straighten out their starting pitching, you have to figure they will give Minnesota a run in the division. But ultimately, they are going to have to perform in September. The Tigers under Jim Leyland have folded the last four seasons:

• 2006: The team had a 76-36 record and a 10-game lead on August 7^th, they then went 19-31 the rest of the year and lost the division.  
• 2007: The Team had a 59-38 record which was the best record in baseball and a 2-game lead on July 23^rd. They got swept at Chicago in a double header the next day on route to a 29-36 finish. 
• 2008: After a horrible start, the team climbs back to a 52-49 record on July 23^rd. They were within 5 games of the White Sox. A blown save by Todd Jones against the White Sox starts a 22-39 run to end the season.
• 2009: The Tigers climb to 75-61 on September 6 and open up a 7-game lead after 3 dramatic wins in a sweep at Tampa. They then promptly get swept at KC by the lowly Royals starting an 11-16 finish that culminates in a one-game playoff loss to the Twins.

Analysis of the First Inning:

Starting Pitching: Bonderman and Willis were the big question marks coming into the season and even though neither were lights out, you have to be encouraged that Dontrelle only walked 7 in 17 innings and equally  encouraged by Bonderman striking out 14 and only giving up 13 hits in 15 innings. Verlander has struggled, but he also struggled at the beginning of last year. Porcello is the real concern as he is getting hit all over the ball park (23 hits in 15.1 innings). Scherzer has been terrific, his strikeout rate is down from his rookie year, but this is probably by design as he is concentrating on going deeper in games.

Bullpen: The rigthhanders in the bullpen have been great. The 4 righthanders are combined to give up 41 baserunners in 40 innings with a 1.35 ERA. The lefties in the Pen, Ni, Thomas, and Coke have struggled at times, giving up 42 baserunners in 24 innings, but have held opponents to a 4.09 ERA.

Offense: The team definitely seems to be taking a different batting approach in 2010 as they are being much more patient (2nd in the league in walks compared to 8th in 2010). The hope is that the Homeruns will start coming in greater frequency as the season moves on.

With Guillen going on the DL, the Tigers are now starting 3 ture rookies who have made their debuts in 2010 (Jackson, Sizemore, and Boesch). The true rookies are hitting a combined 295/359/388 (avg/obp/slg), though they had yet to hit a HR. Miguel Cabrerra hitting like he did at the beginning of 2009. Magglio, traditionally a  slow starter, is looking very good and is making Dombrowski look smart for not cutting him last July like so many in this town were demanding it. Johnny Damon is doing exactly what the Tigers wanted by getting on base and setting the table for the Venezuelans. If Santiago and Everett continue as they started, you have to figure Ramon will get the balk of the playing time. The catching platoon has thrown out a lot of runners, but hitting anemically 129/280/194.

In summary, the key to 2010 is going to be getting the starting pitching on track . Obviuosly, a 5.51 ERA from the starters for the whole season will not result in a record at the end that is over .500.

Quit Feeling Sorry for ourselves: Time Magazine ran a several stories last fall on Detroit and the problems it is encountering. One theme in the articles is how the great city of Detroit was ravaged by decline of the auto industry, the over-empowerment of the UAW, and “white flight” after the riots of 1967. A common theme for the national media is to look on Detroit and southeastern Michigan with pity, and many in this area soak up the pity and feel sorry for their plight.

Well, all of these things are ancient history. Almost every city in the US had riots in the late 1960s, yet we are the only region that still talks about how great things were before the riots, like we were destined to this fate 42 years ago?

In addition let’s face facts that the auto industry is all but gone from Michigan along with the 100k+ plus jobs for unskilled laborers. Many industries have come and gone from other regions. How much meatpacking still takes place in Chicago? Where is the textile industry?

Our region has great colleges, a nice cool climate, plenty of fresh water, no worries about wildfires, hurricanes, earthquakes or other natural disasters, but we need to stop feeling sorry for ourselves! Few individuals or businesses are going to be attracted to our area until we pull ourselves up by our bootstraps and forget about the assent and descent of this region during the 20th century!

Fire up the bulldozers: Blight is bad! Blight gives crack heads and meth addicts a place to hide and hookers a place to work. If a residence is run down or boarded up, the city needs to foreclose on the property. They need to bulldoze the property and setup a land bank that can clean the title and offer the property for resale later.

As big of a Tiger Fan that I am, I could not in good conscience cry too loud when the City of Detroit cleared the old Tiger Stadium. Yes, there were lots of proposals to revamp the property, and for sure there were probably tons of buildings in worse shape that needed to come down. But one more empty blighted building that is brought down is one less eyesore we have to see and one less crack house the Detroit Police have to bust.

Make people feel safe: No one will move into the city until they feel safe. Detroit has a huge crime problem and unfortunately there is no way to turn it around overnight. What you can do, is take a small section of the city, patrol it like crazy, let word out on the street that the book will be thrown at anyone committing a crime in that area. I have heard from old-timers in Chicago that this is what Daley did in the Michigan Avenue corridor in the early 1970′s. I would start with the Woodward Avenue Corridor.

Build more Public Transportation: For a long time Detroit shunned public transportation because they wanted to promote automobile usage. Because the key to growth in the 21st century for our city does not lie in the auto industry, we need more public transportation. One thing that has been proposed (and just recently got Federal Funding) is the light rail to go down Woodward Avenue. I would build this ASAP and push for it to extend all the way to Birmingham.

Entice Young Professionals to live in the city: We spend a lot of political time, money, and resources trying to help our state schools educate our best young people. Unfortunately, many of these bright students graduate from a Michigan college and promptly leave the state. How do you entice young people to live in the city? Help them pay their student loans. I would institute a program where young people could deduct their student loans amounts from their property taxes.

Fix the Public Schools: In a recent test, DPS (Detroit Public Schools) students posted the worst score in the history of the test. The DPS is dysfunctional. Because of the shrinking population, there are way too many half full schools. DPS needs to undergo a consolidation of buildings. In addition, they need to institute a voucher system within the city so that the DPS can have some competition and those bright students who want a better education can obtain it. Thanks to the state appointing Robert Bobb, a turnaround of DPS has started to happen.

Ethnic Diversity is critical for all parts of SE Michigan: Detroit is 82% black and 10% white, If you go up Woodward avenue and get north of 8 Mile (the border of Detroit), you hit Ferndale which is 90% white and 3% black, the next city north is Royal Oak which is 94% white and less than 2% black, just north of that is Birmingham which is 95% white and less than 1% black!

Something is seriously wrong with this. You have generations of kids in Detroit who rarely see white people in their schools. Conversely, in many Oakland County Schools, a black person is a rarity.  Meanwhile, Chicago is 37% Black, 31% White, and 26% Latino which is a good balanced mix. How do you fix this? I am not sure, but it is the toughest and most important issue on this list. Personally I would like to see the religious leaders of both groups get together to address this issue. People in this region need to realize that just because we have different skin tones; it does not make us opponents.

I love Michigan, I love Detroit, and I hope someday my children will be proud to not only say I am from Detroit, but I live in Detroit and it is a great place to be!

Separated by only 4 hours across I-94, the cities are worlds apart. According to www.city-data.com, using 2007 statistics, Chicago has an average income of $45,505 while Detroit is $28,097. Chicago has an average home price of $286,800 while Detroit is $100,351. 33.8% of Detroit lives in poverty compared to 20.5% for Chicago.  The murder rate per 100,000 in Detroit has averaged 41 over the last 10 years, more than twice the rate in Chicago (19).

With this post and my next one I am going to compare Detroit and Chicago, two cities that at one time were similar, but have since grown very much apart. I am going to highlight some of the problems I see with the City of Detroit and the Southeastern Michigan as a whole. I am going to break up my analysis into two posts, because I have many opinions on the subject.  I will apologize now if I offend anyone, please understand that these are only my personal opinions.

Let’s explore the population of each city. Today Chicago has a population of 2,853,000 people (density of 12,569/sq-mi), and Detroit has a population of 912,000 (density of 6,378/sq-mi). Each city reached their peak population in 1950 before the birth of suburbs. Since 1950, Chicago has lost 21% of its population while Detroit has lost a staggering 51%.

Historical Population Density 

As you can see from the chart above between 1950-1990 Detroit and Chicago experienced similar population loses, but since 1990 Chicago has actually added resident since 1990 (+2%), while Detroit has continued in a death spiral(-11%). The death spiral will not turn around anytime soon as new construction single family permits over the last 12 years have averaged 175 per year in Detroit and 1,000 in Chicago.

It’s NOT Jobs within the City?

From 1990 – 2000 Chicago workers LOST close to 70,000 jobs within the city while Detroit workers lost a lower percentage and only 15,000 jobs. Yet the population of Chicago grew by 2%, while the population of Detroit shrunk by 11%. The reason for this phenomenon is that many more Chicago workers are now commuting from the city to a job in the suburbs.

I am reminded of my niece, Allison, who lives in downtown San Francisco near the baseball stadium, yet works for HP about 45 minutes away in the suburbs. Like many young urban professionals she and her fiance enjoy living in an urban setting, have no kids, and do not have time to worry about the upkeep of a house. They can walk or take a cab to a local restaurant and do not have to worry about the legal consequences of having to return home if they have a couple of adult beverages.

My niece Allison’s story would be rare for Detroit. Very few young professionals live in the city. The people in the suburbs only go to Detroit to see a ball game, show, or visit a casino. Young professionals, like my niece who has an engineering degree from Michigan State, are leaving this region in droves.

I grew up in the Baltimore-Washington Suburbs and have through my business travelled to most of the major cities in this country. I can tell you I have never been to an area as dysfunctional as Southeastern Michigan. The City of Detroit and the Suburbs surrounding it do nothing but bicker with each other.

There is so much distrust for the suburbs that a suburbanite, Robert  Thompson, who was educated in Detroit, was going to donate $200 million dollars to the Detroit Public Schools was told to get lost because he wanted too much control of how his money was going to get spent. More recently, this region almost lost its last showpiece event, The North American Auto Show,  when the city fought with the suburbs and state over the much needed redevelopment of the Cobo Center.

I know many of my neighbors in the suburbs, would like to forget about the city of Detroit. But, the city is the heart of this area. Like a human being cannot live without a heart, this region cannot survive without a healthy city of Detroit. It takes my suburban neighbors working with the city, not being elitist. 

Most importantly, it will take leadership in the city government that accepts responsibility, creates a safe atmosphere, and encourages immigration. I love this area, and I sincerely hope in my lifetime we can see a renaissance in Detroit. But hope is not a strategy, so in my next post, I am going to offer some ideas I have on the issue.