Wed 12 Jan 2011
Here is my recap of my simulated finals of the NCAA Playoffs which took place the same day as the real finals (1/10/11):
Monday January 10, 2011 (Game played in New Orleans, LA):
- Oregon (2) 31 – Stanford (4) 29: In a game for the ages, Oregon got the win on a last second 35-yard field goal by sophomore Rob Beard. The game was much closer than the earlier contest this season when Oregon blew out the Cardinal by three touchdowns on October 2 (52-31). In that October 2 game in Eugene, the Cardinal were outscored 28-0 in the second half thanks in part to three costly turnovers. Tonight the Cardinal protected the ball with no turnovers. QB Andrew Luck had over 300 yards through the air for the Cardinal, but in the end the Ducks, lead by Sophomore QB Derron Thomas, who had 222 yards passing to go along with 55 yards running, came out victorious.
- Looking at the real life 2010 college season, Stanford may have been the best team in the country. The predictor in the Jeff Sagarin ratings, which is the basis for the lines at many books, indicates this. They had one bad half of football all season (October 2, 2010 in Eugene).
- In a playoff, rarely does the best team win, but in a playoff, every team that deserves a shot to win a championship gets that shot.
- I feel bad for the kids on the TCU team that rolled over every opponent this season and outscored their opponents by an average of 41 to 12. They were 13-0, but because they did not play in a “power” conference, did not get a shot to play for the championship.
- Some people will question why the simulation did not have Auburn in the Finals. In real life Auburn was 14-0, but an interesting fact is that seven of those games were won by 8 or less points. Without Cam Newton, Auburn may well have had four losses. In my simulation, I had Cam Newton hurting his ankle. In any playoff, luck plays an important factor, and Auburn would not have been able to survive an injury to Newton.
- One thing that I very much dislike about College Football is the weak non-conference schedule that most teams play in order to protect their hopes of going undefeated. For instance Auburn played Arkansas State, Louisiana Monroe, and Chattanooga, Oregon played New Mexico and Portland State (winning 72-0 and 69-0). In a playoff situation, where a conference winner is guaranteed a spot, power teams would more than likely be scheduling other power teams for their early season non-conference schedule as they would want to prepare conference play.
- The BCS Championship game was not even shown on network TV as ESPN carried the game. Could you even imagine the attention that a 16-team playoff would draw to College Football?
- Presently, the NCAA is so against a playoff that they will not even allow Electronic Arts to program on into their Video Game. Hopefully in the next decade, the NCAA will see the light.