Patti Engineering Insight

The Tale of Two Cities Part 2

shoff — Fri, 26 Feb 2010 11:50:30 +0000

This is the post where I am going to offer ideas for turning around the city of Detroit. These are my opinions, and are completely subjective. I absolutely believe that the City of Detroit can comeback. It will not be easy or quick, but it can certainly be done!

Quit Feeling Sorry for ourselves: Time Magazine ran a several stories last fall on Detroit and the problems it is encountering. One theme in the articles is how the great city of Detroit was ravaged by decline of the auto industry, the over-empowerment of the UAW, and “white flight” after the riots of 1967. A common theme for the national media is to look on Detroit and southeastern Michigan with pity, and many in this area soak up the pity and feel sorry for their plight.

Well, all of these things are ancient history. Almost every city in the US had riots in the late 1960s, yet we are the only region that still talks about how great things were before the riots, like we were destined to this fate 42 years ago?

In addition let’s face facts that the auto industry is all but gone from Michigan along with the 100k+ plus jobs for unskilled laborers. Many industries have come and gone from other regions. How much meatpacking still takes place in Chicago? Where is the textile industry?

Our region has great colleges, a nice cool climate, plenty of fresh water, no worries about wildfires, hurricanes, earthquakes or other natural disasters, but we need to stop feeling sorry for ourselves! Few individuals or businesses are going to be attracted to our area until we pull ourselves up by our bootstraps and forget about the assent and descent of this region during the 20th century!

Fire up the bulldozers: Blight is bad! Blight gives crack heads and meth addicts a place to hide and hookers a place to work. If a residence is run down or boarded up, the city needs to foreclose on the property. They need to bulldoze the property and setup a land bank that can clean the title and offer the property for resale later.

As big of a Tiger Fan that I am, I could not in good conscience cry too loud when the City of Detroit cleared the old Tiger Stadium. Yes, there were lots of proposals to revamp the property, and for sure there were probably tons of buildings in worse shape that needed to come down. But one more empty blighted building that is brought down is one less eyesore we have to see and one less crack house the Detroit Police have to bust.

Make people feel safe: No one will move into the city until they feel safe. Detroit has a huge crime problem and unfortunately there is no way to turn it around overnight. What you can do, is take a small section of the city, patrol it like crazy, let word out on the street that the book will be thrown at anyone committing a crime in that area. I have heard from old-timers in Chicago that this is what Daley did in the Michigan Avenue corridor in the early 1970’s. I would start with the Woodward Avenue Corridor.

Build more Public Transportation: For a long time Detroit shunned public transportation because they wanted to promote automobile usage. Because the key to growth in the 21st century for our city does not lie in the auto industry, we need more public transportation. One thing that has been proposed (and just recently got Federal Funding) is the light rail to go down Woodward Avenue. I would build this ASAP and push for it to extend all the way to Birmingham.

Entice Young Professionals to live in the city: We spend a lot of political time, money, and resources trying to help our state schools educate our best young people. Unfortunately, many of these bright students graduate from a Michigan college and promptly leave the state. How do you entice young people to live in the city? Help them pay their student loans. I would institute a program where young people could deduct their student loans amounts from their property taxes.

Fix the Public Schools: In a recent test, DPS (Detroit Public Schools) students posted the worst score in the history of the test. The DPS is dysfunctional. Because of the shrinking population, there are way too many half full schools. DPS needs to undergo a consolidation of buildings. In addition, they need to institute a voucher system within the city so that the DPS can have some competition and those bright students who want a better education can obtain it. Thanks to the state appointing Robert Bobb, a turnaround of DPS has started to happen.

Ethnic Diversity is critical for all parts of SE Michigan: Detroit is 82% black and 10% white, If you go up Woodward avenue and get north of 8 Mile (the border of Detroit), you hit Ferndale which is 90% white and 3% black, the next city north is Royal Oak which is 94% white and less than 2% black, just north of that is Birmingham which is 95% white and less than 1% black!

Something is seriously wrong with this. You have generations of kids in Detroit who rarely see white people in their schools. Conversely, in many Oakland County Schools, a black person is a rarity. Meanwhile, Chicago is 37% Black, 31% White, and 26% Latino which is a good balanced mix. How do you fix this? I am not sure, but it is the toughest and most important issue on this list. Personally I would like to see the religious leaders of both groups get together to address this issue. People in this region need to realize that just because we have different skin tones; it does not make us opponents.

I love Michigan, I love Detroit, and I hope someday my children will be proud to not only say I am from Detroit, but I live in Detroit and it is a great place to be!

The Tale of Two Cities part 1

shoff — Sun, 27 Dec 2009 04:49:38 +0000

Having now spent the majority of my life in the Midwest, I can say that I am proud to be associated with the region. People in the Midwest have grit. They are not narcissistic and their family is the most important thing in their life. Two cities that display the Midwestern persona are Chicago and Detroit.

Separated by only 4 hours across I-94, the cities are worlds apart. According to www.city-data.com, using 2007 statistics, Chicago has an average income of $45,505 while Detroit is $28,097. Chicago has an average home price of $286,800 while Detroit is $100,351. 33.8% of Detroit lives in poverty compared to 20.5% for Chicago. The murder rate per 100,000 in Detroit has averaged 41 over the last 10 years, more than twice the rate in Chicago (19).

With this post and my next one I am going to compare Detroit and Chicago, two cities that at one time were similar, but have since grown very much apart. I am going to highlight some of the problems I see with the City of Detroit and the Southeastern Michigan as a whole. I am going to break up my analysis into two posts, because I have many opinions on the subject. I will apologize now if I offend anyone, please understand that these are only my personal opinions.

Let’s explore the population of each city. Today Chicago has a population of 2,853,000 people (density of 12,569/sq-mi), and Detroit has a population of 912,000 (density of 6,378/sq-mi). Each city reached their peak population in 1950 before the birth of suburbs. Since 1950, Chicago has lost 21% of its population while Detroit has lost a staggering 51%.

Historical Population Density

As you can see from the chart above between 1950-1990 Detroit and Chicago experienced similar population loses, but since 1990 Chicago has actually added resident since 1990 (+2%), while Detroit has continued in a death spiral(-11%). The death spiral will not turn around anytime soon as new construction single family permits over the last 12 years have averaged 175 per year in Detroit and 1,000 in Chicago.

It’s NOT Jobs within the City?

From 1990 – 2000 Chicago workers LOST close to 70,000 jobs within the city while Detroit workers lost a lower percentage and only 15,000 jobs. Yet the population of Chicago grew by 2%, while the population of Detroit shrunk by 11%. The reason for this phenomenon is that many more Chicago workers are now commuting from the city to a job in the suburbs.

I am reminded of my niece, Allison, who lives in downtown San Francisco near the baseball stadium, yet works for HP about 45 minutes away in the suburbs. Like many young urban professionals she and her fiance enjoy living in an urban setting, have no kids, and do not have time to worry about the upkeep of a house. They can walk or take a cab to a local restaurant and do not have to worry about the legal consequences of having to return home if they have a couple of adult beverages.

My niece Allison’s story would be rare for Detroit. Very few young professionals live in the city. The people in the suburbs only go to Detroit to see a ball game, show, or visit a casino. Young professionals, like my niece who has an engineering degree from Michigan State, are leaving this region in droves.

I grew up in the Baltimore-Washington Suburbs and have through my business travelled to most of the major cities in this country. I can tell you I have never been to an area as dysfunctional as Southeastern Michigan. The City of Detroit and the Suburbs surrounding it do nothing but bicker with each other.

There is so much distrust for the suburbs that a suburbanite, Robert Thompson, who was educated in Detroit, was going to donate $200 million dollars to the Detroit Public Schools was told to get lost because he wanted too much control of how his money was going to get spent. More recently, this region almost lost its last showpiece event, The North American Auto Show, when the city fought with the suburbs and state over the much needed redevelopment of the Cobo Center.

I know many of my neighbors in the suburbs, would like to forget about the city of Detroit. But, the city is the heart of this area. Like a human being cannot live without a heart, this region cannot survive without a healthy city of Detroit. It takes my suburban neighbors working with the city, not being elitist.

Most importantly, it will take leadership in the city government that accepts responsibility, creates a safe atmosphere, and encourages immigration. I love this area, and I sincerely hope in my lifetime we can see a renaissance in Detroit. But hope is not a strategy, so in my next post, I am going to offer some ideas I have on the issue.

The 9th Inning is Over

shoff — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 19:04:13 +0000

A full baseball season can be broken into nine 18-game segments. I have termed these 18-game segments as an “inning” of a season. The 9th inning of 2009 provided an extra game as the Tigers and Twins hooked up for an exciting but deflating one game playoff.

Let’s compare the nine innings of 2009:

Starters: Bullpen:

W-L RS –RA HR-SB-AVG/OBA/SLG W-L- IP- ERA W-L-S-ERA

1st: 10-8 102-84 21-12-276/349/432 7-6-103.1-4.62 3-2-4-3.96

2nd: 10-8 99-86 20- 6-265/342/436 8-5-104.0-3.63 2-3-3-5.68

3rd: 9-9 67-65 14-13-252/317/370 9-8-114.1-3.23 0-1-5-4.23

4th: 12-6 85-84 29- 8-259/335/459 6-5- 97.2-4.98 6-1-6-4.08

5th: 7-11 70-76 23- 7-234/307/403 5-7-108.1-3.90 2-4-3-3.66

6th: 10-8 82-86 16- 7-268/338/412 6-6-113.2-4.75 4-2-5-3.44

7th: 9-9 74-85 25- 9-250/321/423 5-5-104.0-4.76 4-4-6-4.39

8th: 10-8 85-92 19- 7-267/355/425 7-5-101.1-4.88 3-3-6-5.28

9th: 9-10 79-87 16- 3-271/351/390 7-8-109.1-4.45 2-2-5-4.13

On Sunday September 6 the Tigers completed a sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays. The Tigers were 14 games over .500 and had a 7 game lead on the second place Minnesota Twins who were at exactly .500. The Tigers used their whole roster that magical weekend at TB which featured late inning wins in every game. Exactly one month later on the 163rd game of the season the Tigers were knocked out of first place for the first time since May 9th, finishing with an 11-16 mark while the Twins closed 19-8. This pattern of limping to the close has happened in all four seasons that Jim Leyland has managed the Tigers. The 2009 collapse happened later in the season than the previous collapses:

2006: The team had a 76-36 record and a 10-game lead on August 7^th, they then went 19-31 the rest of the year and lost the division on the last day of the season to the Twins.
2007: The Team had a 59-38 record which was the best record in baseball and a 2-game lead on July 23^rd. They got swept at Chicago in a double header the next day on route to a 29-36 finish.
2008: After a horrible start, the team climbs back to a 52-49 record on July 23^rd. They were within 5 games of the White Sox. A blown save by Todd Jones against the White Sox starts a 22-39 run to end the season.

Starting Pitching: Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello were both terrific going down the stretch. Eddie Bonine did as well as can be expected from a 28-yr old career minor leaguer. Edwin Jackson lost three of his 4 starts, his whip wasn’t horrible as he walked only 8 batters, but he gave up 12 extra base hits and was hurt by some big innings. Nate Robertson was very ineffective and the one Figaro start was bad albeit brief.

Name	G	IP	W	L	K	ERA	WHIP
Justin Verlander	4	30	3	1	30	4.20	1.20
Rick Porcello	4	23	1	1	11	2.35	1.39
Eddie Bonine	3	16 2/3	1	1	8	2.70	1.32
Edwin Jackson	4	24	1	3	16	6.75	1.46
Nate Robertson	3	14 1/3	1	1	10	5.65	1.81
Alfredo Figaro	1	1 1/3	0	1	2	13.50	3.75

Bullpen: In looking at the numbers, why was Fernando Rodney continuously trotted out? Between the 8th and 9th innings, Rodney pitched in 19 of the teams 37 games logging 19.1 innings in which he gave up 24 hits, 15 walks, and pitched to a 7.45 era. Brandon Lyon was very effective as was Perry. Miner was also very effective in every outing except his last when he was pulled 2 batters too late. Ni pitched great and it would of been nice to see more than 3.1 innings out of him. Figaro had an effective outing in Chicago picking up a win as the Tigers came back from a 5-0 deficit. Bobby Seay was clearly hurt and hopefully will be ready to go next spring. Fein, Rapada, Bonderman, and Galarraga all got in some mop-up duty.

Name	G	IP	W	L	S	K	ERA	WHIP
Brandon Lyon	9	10 2/3	0	1	0	7	2.53	1.31
Ryan Keith Perry	6	7 2/3	0	0	0	9	2.35	1.30
Zach Miner	7	9 2/3	1	0	0	7	1.86	1.45
Fu-Te Ni	7	3 1/3	0	0	0	2	0.00	0.60
Alfredo Figaro	2	4 2/3	1	0	0	2	1.93	1.29
Casey Fien	3	4	0	0	0	3	4.50	1.00
Fernando Rodney	10	11 2/3	0	1	5	2	6.94	1.89
Clay Rapada	1	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00
J Bonderman	3	2 1/3	0	0	0	2	0.00	2.14
A Galarraga	3	3 2/3	0	0	0	3	12.27	2.18
Bobby Seay	5	2 1/3	0	0	0	1	15.43	4.71

Offense: The offense had their second best inning performances with a 271 BA and a 351 OBP, but the 390 SLG was the second lowest of the year. Magglio Ordonez finished on a tear finishing 10th in the league in batting despite getting benched mid season. Miguel Cabrera was good, though not great in the closing inning. His final weekend was marred by a 0-11 performance and a drunken police call to his home. Hopefully, he will get his personal matters straightened out before the 2010 campaign.

Ryan Raburn completed a nice breakout season, Polanco got on base at over a 400 clip, and Carlos Guillen showed signs that he can be a viable DH option for 2010. All that Ramon Santiago did was play good defense and hit, unlike his counterpart Adam Everett who did not hit a lick coming down the stretch. Curtis Granderson really hampered the top of the lineup by not getting on base enough.

Inge and Laird were in the lineup everyday for their defense and neither one hit a lick. While I can generally agree with starting them for defense, I am perplexed on Leyland’s in game management of those two. On September 18th Detroit lost to Minnesota 3-0. In the 9th inning of the game with two out Avila PH for Inge and walked, after a Granderson double, Huff pinch hit for Laird and popped out to Short Stop to end the game. That was the last time either one of them were pinch hit for? I will forever wonder what Avila would of done against Keppel with 2-out and the bases loaded in the 12th inning of game 163. I am pretty sure he would not have been caught chasing an obvious ball 4 like Laird did.

Marcus Thames’ Tiger days may be over and he went his last 86 ABs without a HR, Clete Thomas has to reduce his high strikeout rate, and Huff’s Tiger career was a disaster. On a brighter note Don Kelly had a memorable 163rd game and as a 29-yr old minor leaguer that will probably be his career highlight.

Name	G	AB	HR	RBI	SB	BA	OBP	SLG
Magglio Ordonez	15	57	2	10	0	.421	.459	.614
Miguel Cabrera	19	76	5	14	1	.276	.353	.513
Ryan Raburn	15	33	4	6	0	.333	.436	.697
Placido Polanco	18	75	0	8	0	.347	.412	.373
Carlos Guillen	15	47	2	8	0	.234	.362	.468
C Granderson	19	83	3	9	0	.253	.287	.422
Ramon Santiago	12	40	0	5	1	.325	.372	.325
Brandon Inge	19	72	0	8	0	.208	.278	.264
Gerald Laird	17	58	0	2	1	.224	.308	.259
Marcus Thames	10	22	0	1	0	.227	.357	.273
Clete Thomas	14	24	0	1	0	.208	.240	.292
Aubrey Huff	15	36	0	2	0	.194	.310	.222
Adam Everett	12	33	0	3	0	.212	.235	.273
Don Kelly	8	6	0	0	0	.333	.429	.333
Alex Avila	6	8	0	0	0	.125	.417	.125
Brent Dlugach	2	1	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000

In my 8th inning evaluation, I stated that if the Tigers went 9-9 over their last 18 games, the Twins would have to go 13-4 to catch them, and amazingly that is exactly what happened despite the Twins missing Morneau. The all important 163rd was played on the road in the hostile Metrodome, and though the Tigers did not play great, they at least played hard and with alot of heart.

It should be a very interesting off season. The Tigers ended 2009 with their opponents outscoring them by 2 runs (743-745). This indication means that even though the Tigers finished 9 games above .500, they played to a level of a .500 club. The Tigers management needs to realize this and make the necessary moves to upgrade the team going into 2010. I cannot envision the same team, without some serious upgrades, competing for a playoff position to the last game of the season next year.

The 8th Inning is Over

shoff — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 21:10:59 +0000

A full baseball season can be broken into Nine 18-game segments. I have termed these 18-game segments as an “inning” of a season. In the past I have provided analysis of each “inning” at www.detroittigersweblog.com. For 2009, I am going to post the analysis on my own blog www.samhoff.com.

Let’s compare the first eight innings of 2009:

Starters: Bullpen:

W-L RS –RA HR-SB-AVG/OBA/SLG W-L- IP- ERA W-L-S-ERA

1st: 10-8 102-84 21-12-276/349/432 7-6-103.1-4.62 3-2-4-3.96

2nd: 10-8 99-86 20- 6-265/342/436 8-5-104.0-3.63 2-3-3-5.68

3rd: 9-9 67-65 14-13-252/317/370 9-8-114.1-3.23 0-1-5-4.23

4th: 12-6 85-84 29- 8-259/335/459 6-5- 97.2-4.98 6-1-6-4.08

5th: 7-11 70-76 23- 7-234/307/403 5-7-108.1-3.90 2-4-3-3.66

6th: 10-8 82-86 16- 7-268/338/412 6-6-113.2-4.75 4-2-5-3.44

7th: 9-9 74-85 25- 9-250/321/423 5-5-104.0-4.76 4-4-6-4.39

8th: 10-8 85-92 19- 7-267/355/425 7-5-101.1-4.88 3-3-6-5.28

The 10-8 eighth inning featured a 6-game winning streak immediately followed by a 5-game losing streak. Half of the defeats were to the worst team in the AL, KC, who outscored the Tigers 30-11. Overall, the Tigers were outscored by their opponents by 7 runs; marking the 4th inning in a row they were outscored. The good news is that the Twins were an identical 10-8 during the inning, while the White Sox were 9-9. Therefore the Tigers 4.5 game lead going into the 9th inning is the exact same that it was when the inning started on 8/27.

Starting Pitching: The Tigers starting pitching overall had a pedestrian 4.88 era. Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello were both very effective and Edwin Jackson battled to win 2 of his 3 starts. At this point, the 4th starter is a crap shoot. Nate Robertson had two very nice starts, and then on 9/11 gave up 6 hits and 5 walks in 3.2 innings before leaving with a groin injury. Washburn has been horrible while battling a knee injury which may keep him out for the season. Galarraga has elbow problems and pitched like he was pouring gasoline on a fire. The Tigers are so desperate for a 4th starter that Eddie Bonine is starting in the first game of the 9th inning. Bonine is 28 years old with a career 4.52 minor league ERA. He has been hit at the major league level for 341/378/564. A Tigers starter for the upcoming Sunday game in Minnesota has yet to be determined.

Name	G	IP	W	L	K	ERA	WHIP
Justin Verlander	4	29	2	1	28	3.10	1.14
Rick Porcello	4	24 2/3	3	0	12	3.28	1.01
Edwin Jackson	3	20	2	0	14	5.40	1.45
Nate Robertson	3	13 2/3	0	2	8	1.98	1.61
Jarrod Washburn	3	11 2/3	0	2	5	11.57	2.31
A Galarraga	1	2 1/3	0	0	1	23.14	3.00

Bullpen: The bullpen had some very rough outings in the last inning and overall put up a very high ERA (5.28). Brandon Lyon was very effective and Zach Miner pitched well in 6 of his 7 appearances. Ni and Seay gave the Tigers a nice 1-2 lefty combination. Ryan Perry gave up a ton of base runners and looks to be hitting a wall. Fernando Rodney gave up multiple earned runs in 3 of 9 appearances. The Tigers must get Rodney back on track as making Lyon the closer leaves a big hole at setup.

Name	G	IP	W	L	S	K	ERA	WHIP
Brandon Lyon	8	8	0	0	2	7	1.12	0.38
Zach Miner	7	11 1/3	1	1	0	5	3.18	1.32
Fu-Te Ni	9	5	0	0	0	2	3.60	1.40
Eddie Bonine	2	3 2/3	0	0	0	2	2.45	0.82
Bobby Seay	7	5 1/3	2	1	0	5	6.75	1.13
Ryan Keith Perry	7	8 1/3	0	0	0	5	5.40	1.80
F Rodney	9	7 2/3	0	1	4	6	8.22	2.22
Nate Robertson	1	2/3	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00
J Bonderman	4	4	0	0	0	2	9.00	2.00
Casey Fien	2	3 1/3	0	0	0	0	10.80	1.80
A Galarraga	1	2 1/3	0	0	0	3	11.57	1.71

Offense: The offense had a pretty good performance as their 355 OBP was the best of the year. Carlos Guillen has quietly has been getting on base at a nice clip and his 3 HRs in the inning tied for the team lead. Guillen’s LF platoon partner, Ryan Raburn has also been hot. Magglio Ordonez continues to hit for average and has now had enough plate appearances to kick in his $18m option for 2010, but is not driving in runs (2) and only had 2 extra base hits (both doubles). Polanco tied for the team lead in HRs in the 8th and came up with some nice clutch hits. Speaking of clutch hits, Huff’s 3-run HR in the bottom of the 9th inning on 9/14 will definitely make the season highlight DVD. Miguel Cabrera and Curtis Granderson are both in mini slumps while Brandon Inge is mired in a severe second half slump. Laird is in the game for defensive purposes only, while Avila has really provided a nice stick as the backup catcher. Santiago and Everett continue to perform at career expectations. Clete Thomas is having a nice sophomore season, while Wilkin Ramirez is giving us a brief glimpse why he may be a serious component of the 2010 Tigers.

Name	G	AB	HR	RBI	SB	BA	OBP	SLG
Carlos Guillen	13	37	3	8	0	.243	.391	.568
Ryan Raburn	16	35	2	5	0	.343	.385	.571
Magglio Ordonez	16	49	0	2	0	.429	.491	.469
Placido Polanco	17	67	3	9	2	.299	.310	.493
Aubrey Huff	17	46	2	10	0	.239	.286	.478
Alex Avila	11	20	2	5	0	.300	.318	.600
Miguel Cabrera	18	63	2	7	2	.238	.364	.349
Clete Thomas	16	26	0	3	1	.269	.387	.423
Marcus Thames	12	26	0	5	0	.308	.355	.385
Brandon Inge	18	62	3	9	0	.194	.286	.355
C Granderson	18	63	2	5	0	.190	.282	.365
Adam Everett	15	40	0	6	0	.250	.348	.350
Gerald Laird	16	38	0	6	1	.263	.341	.342
Wilkin Ramirez	8	5	0	2	0	.600	.571	1.000
Ramon Santiago	10	28	0	0	0	.250	.300	.286
Don Kelly	4	2	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000
Brent Dlugach	3	2	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000
Dusty Ryan	1	1	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000

Despite getting spanked by the mighty Royals, the Tigers held serve in the 8th inning by maintaining a 4.5 game lead on their competition. The Twins, Tigers, and White Sox have 52 combined games left, 32 of which are against each other including the Tigers playing 13 games against their closest pursuers. Minnesota has lost Morneau for the year, and the White Sox have traded valuable pieces away but the race is FAR from over as The Tigers only have 3 starting pitchers left.

In looking at the schedule, the Tigers could get 4 more starts a piece from Verlander, Jackson, and Porcello if needed. If the Tigers can go 9-9 the rest of the way, the Twins would have to go 13-4 or the White Sox 14-3 in order to create a tie. I am hoping that when I write the 9th inning summary, I am talking about the 4th starter for the Yankee Series instead of doing a post mortem on the Tiger’s collapse.

The 7th Inning is Over

shoff — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 18:43:23 +0000

Let’s compare the first seven innings of 2009:

Starters: Bullpen:

W-L RS –RA HR-SB-AVG/OBA/SLG W-L- IP- ERA W-L-S-ERA

1st: 10-8 102-84 21-12-276/349/432 7-6-103.1-4.62 3-2-4-3.96

2nd: 10-8 99-86 20- 6-265/342/436 8-5-104.0-3.63 2-3-3-5.68

3rd: 9-9 67-65 14-13-252/317/370 9-8-114.1-3.23 0-1-5-4.23

4th: 12-6 85-84 29- 8-259/335/459 6-5- 97.2-4.98 6-1-6-4.08

5th: 7-11 70-76 23- 7-234/307/403 5-7-108.1-3.90 2-4-3-3.66

6th: 10-8 82-86 16- 7-268/338/412 6-6-113.2-4.75 4-2-5-3.44

7th: 9-9 74-85 25- 9-250/321/423 5-5-104.0-4.76 4-4-6-4.39

The seventh inning saw the Tigers finish 9-9. The Tigers started out the inning 1-4 after losing the first 3 games in Boston which included a controversial brawl and the Rick Porcello suspension. The Tigers went a respectable 8-5 after that while outscoring their opponents 54-46. The Tiger’s gained in the Central division race as the Twins (10-8) and the White Sox (7-10) had their own struggles.

Starting Pitching: The Tigers starting pitching was pretty mediocre (4.75 era). Justin Verlander continues to roll up strikeouts (31 in 27.2 innings) and his 2-0 win against Boston on August 13 may be the turning point in the Tigers season. Galarraga was pretty effective in 2 starts then was strangely sent down to Toledo with elbow inflammation. Rick Porcello only pitched 12 innings thanks impart to his 2nd inning ejection at Boston. Washburn was very effective for a guy who gave up 7 HRs in 26 innings. After having no run support all year, Edwin Jackson got 2 wins despite pitching very ineffectively.

Name	G	IP	W	L	S	K	ERA	WHIP
Justin Verlander	4	27 2/3	2	2		31	3.90	1.19
A Galarraga	2	11 1/3	0	0		9	3.18	1.32
Rick Porcello	3	12	0	1		10	5.25	1.25
Jarrod Washburn	4	26	1	0		14	4.85	1.23
Edwin Jackson	4	22 1/3	2	1		14	5.24	1.84
Zach Miner	1	4 2/3	0	1		3	9.64	1.93

Bullpen: The bullpen continued to be effective. Eliminating Lambert and Dolsi’s 3 horrendous outings the bullpen posted a 2.78 ERA. Fernando Rodney continues to pitch well as an unearned run lead to his only loss. Seay, Lyon, Ni, and Perry were all effective as middle relievers. Zach Miner took 33% of the Tiger’s loses in the 7th inning and seems to be best suited for low leverage situations.

Name	G	IP	W	L	S	K	ERA	WHIP
F Rodney	7	8 1/3	0	1	6	7	1.08	0.96
Bobby Seay	8	7	2	0	0	6	2.57	1.14
Fu-Te Ni	4	6 2/3	0	0	0	2	4.05	0.90
Brandon Lyon	6	7	2	0	0	7	3.86	1.57
Ryan Perry	8	9	0	0	0	11	3.00	1.56
Zach Miner	5	7 1/3	0	2	0	3	2.45	1.23
Chris Lambert	2	6 2/3	0	1	0	4	14.85	2.70
Freddy Dolsi	1	1 1/3	0	0	0	1	6.75	4.50

Offense: The offense continues to perform below expectations. Thank God for Miguel Cabrera who like last year, really seems to be heating up in towards the end of the year. Magglio is showing signs of life as 6 extra base hits and Clete Thomas’ 20 strikeouts in 46 ABs seem to make it apparent that Maggs will get his 18m option (he needs 55 more ABs in the remaining 36 games). Guillen, Granderson, and Polanco all get passing offensive grades for the 7th inning. Ryan Raburn hit well, but is now officially categorized as a butcher at 3B as a 3-error effort against KC on August 16 brought his career fielding percentage to .811 at that position. Avila proved he is human, but you have to love the fact that he coaxed 5 walks in his 30 plate appearances. Ramon Santiago seems to be winning the year long shortstop battle with Everett as he has hit much better and has a slightly better range factor for the season. Brandon Inge is not hitting at all, but pretty much has to be kept in the lineup for his glove. Gerald Laird’s offense continues to disappoint despite his good defense. Thames has been relegated to playing only against lefty starters. The Tigers were rumored to have traded for Aubrey Huff, but it doesn’t seem that he has shown up yet!

Name	G	AB	HR	RBI	SB	BA	OBP	SLG
Miguel Cabrera	17	64	5	17	2	.422	.486	.750
Magglio Ordonez	14	41	1	4	0	.390	.490	.634
Carlos Guillen	16	52	4	11	0	.269	.367	.519
C Granderson	17	63	3	5	1	.222	.300	.444
Ryan Raburn	16	28	4	5	2	.357	.400	.821
Alex Avila	10	25	2	4	0	.240	.367	.560
Placido Polanco	18	74	0	4	1	.284	.303	.324
Ramon Santiago	13	31	1	2	0	.290	.353	.387
Marcus Thames	11	35	2	6	0	.200	.237	.400
Adam Everett	12	32	1	3	1	.219	.242	.375
Gerald Laird	11	36	0	1	1	.167	.250	.250
Brandon Inge	17	61	2	6	0	.131	.154	.230
Clete Thomas	16	46	0	3	1	.130	.216	.130
Aubrey Huff	8	24	0	1	0	.083	.154	.083

The 7th inning featured 4 games at Boston and a 6 game road trip to the west coast where the Tigers have traditionally struggled. A 9-9 record and increasing the lead in the central are positive signs. The next inning features 12 home games and only seven games against a team with a winning record (all vs. TB). The Tigers need to make hay in the 8th inning to build a cushion going into the last inning which will feature 13 games against Minnesota and Chicago. As pointed out in previous posts, history is not on their side. But with a relatively healthy team, and a favorable schedule, Leyland will have no excuses for not winning the central division.

The 6th Inning is Over

shoff — Sat, 08 Aug 2009 18:09:22 +0000

Let’s compare the first six innings of 2009:

Starters: Bullpen:

W-L RS –RA HR-SB-AVG/OBA/SLG W-L- IP- ERA W-L-S-ERA

1st: 10-8 102-84 21-12-276/349/432 7-6-103.1-4.62 3-2-4-3.96

2nd: 10-8 99-86 20- 6-265/342/436 8-5-104.0-3.63 2-3-3-5.68

3rd: 9-9 67-65 14-13-252/317/370 9-8-114.1-3.23 0-1-5-4.23

4th: 12-6 85-84 29- 8-259/335/459 6-5- 97.2-4.98 6-1-6-4.08

5th: 7-11 70-76 23- 7-234/307/403 5-7-108.1-3.90 2-4-3-3.66

6th: 10-8 82-86 16- 7-268/338/412 6-6-113.2-4.75 4-2-5-3.44

The sixth inning saw the Tigers finish 10-8 for the 3rd time in 2009. The Tigers were outscored by 4 runs, but helped by a 7-3 record in one and two run games. Interestingly, the Tigers had identical 29-25 records in the first two thirds of the 2009 season, but digging deeper you find that the Tigers outscored their opponents by 33 in the first third, but were outscored by 9 in the second third.

The last third of the season is going to be critical for the Tigers and especially Jim Leyland. The Tigers under Leyland (2005 to 2009) have a combined .533 winning percentage in the first 54 games of the seasons. They have a combined .570 winning percentage in the middle third of seasons. In the final third of seasons, they have a combined .407 winning percentage. In fact, their worst performance in every single year has been in the last third. Many people have a lot of respect for Jim Leyland, but he consistently seems to lose his team down the stretch. I sincerely hope 2009 proves to be different.

Starting Pitching: In the ten games Verlander, Jackson, and Porcello started the Tigers were 8-2. The two other wins were the game Eddie Bonine was called up from Toledo and gave a respectable performance in the second half of a double header verses the White Sox, and a 10-8 win against the Twins where Galarraga was far from sharp. Washburn was swapped for French to try to reverse this trend, though it didn’t work on the first try. For the season, the Tigers are 40-25 when the big-3 (Verlander, Jackson, and Porcello) pitch. They are 18-25 in all other games.

Name	G	IP	W	L	S	K	ERA	WHIP
Justin Verlander	3	24	2	0		25	3.00	1.08
Edwin Jackson	3	19	1	0		16	3.32	1.37
Rick Porcello	4	24	2	1		9	4.88	1.21
A Galarraga	4	25	1	2		14	5.76	1.52
Eddie Bonine	1	6	0	0		4	4.50	1.50
Lucas French	2	10 1/3	0	2		8	6.10	1.74
Jarrod Washburn	1	5 1/3	0	1		2	10.12	1.50

Bullpen: The bullpen has continued to improve. The 3.44 bullpen ERA in the inning was a season best performance and came on the heels of the previous season best (3.66). Rodney is still getting the job done, though he creates some anxious moments. Lyon, Perry, and Ni were all sharp. Seay is going through a bit of a slump. Miner is performing mostly in low leverage situations, though he did get a shaky save in 12 inning affair with Cleveland. Fien had a nice debut against the White Sox, but then pitched his way back to Toledo.

Name	G	IP	W	L	S	K	ERA	WHIP
Brandon Lyon	7	9	1	0	1	11	0.00	0.67
F Rodney	8	9	2	0	3	12	3.00	1.33
Ryan Perry	6	9 1/3	0	0	0	10	2.89	1.07
Fu-Te Ni	8	7	0	0	0	6	2.57	1.00
Zach Miner	6	9	0	0	1	5	4.00	1.67
Bobby Seay	6	5	1	1	0	4	7.20	2.00
Casey Fien	4	4	0	1	0	6	9.00	2.25

Offense: The offense performed better in the 6th inning than in the 5th inning. Their 4.56 runs/game is slightly below the 4.84 league average for 2009. They were building momentum through the inning as they scored 52 runs in the last 9 games after scoring 30 runs in the first 9 games of the inning. Granderson, Cabrera, and Thomas were all very effective. Polanco seems to have his old stroke back and Carlos Guillen has been a welcomed addition to the lineup. Magglio Ordonez was not his old self, but was slightly improved. Brandon Inge has fallen off recently as he has been nursing a sore knee and the shortstop platoon of Santiago and Everett continue to stink offensively. In two games, Alex Avila had as many doubles, one more HR, and only two less RBI than the backup catchers (Treanor, Sardinha, and Ryan) had through the first 106 games.

Name	G	AB	HR	RBI	SB	BA	OBP	SLG
Miguel Cabrera	18	75	4	14	0	.360	.429	.613
C Granderson	17	72	3	8	3	.292	.370	.528
Placido Polanco	17	75	1	10	1	.333	.362	.440
Carlos Guillen	13	51	2	8	0	.294	.368	.471
Clete Thomas	17	46	1	8	0	.283	.389	.391
Magglio Ordonez	13	49	2	6	0	.265	.308	.449
Ryan Raburn	15	42	0	6	1	.262	.311	.333
Alex Avila	2	8	1	5	0	.500	.500	1.125
Brandon Inge	18	59	1	3	0	.237	.318	.322
Ramon Santiago	10	25	0	3	0	.200	.323	.320
Marcus Thames	13	38	1	1	0	.184	.311	.316
Adam Everett	14	39	0	5	1	.179	.190	.205
Gerald Laird	14	42	0	1	1	.167	.222	.238
Dusty Ryan	6	11	0	3	0	.182	.250	.182
Josh Anderson	1	4	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000
Wilkin Ramirez	1	3	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000

After back to back home 2-1 losses to Seattle in games 2 and 3 of the 6th inning, the Tigers stood tied with the White Sox. After that, three straight home wins against the same White Sox built the lead to 3 games which is where it currently stands. The Tigers have picked up a quality fourth starter in Washburn, have a healthy Carlos Guillen, and a couple of veterans in Polanco and Ordonez who seem to be regaining their strokes while having millions of dollars personally riding on a good late season performance. The Tigers seem to be positioned for a good late season run, but only time will tell if they reverse their trend of collapses.

The 5th Inning is Over

shoff — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 17:56:21 +0000

Let’s compare the first five innings of 2009:

Starters: Bullpen:

W-L RS –RA HR-SB-AVG/OBA/SLG W-L- IP- ERA W-L-S-ERA

1st: 10-8 102-84 21-12-276/349/432 7-6-103.1-4.62 3-2-4-3.96

2nd: 10-8 99-86 20- 6-265/342/436 8-5-104.0-3.63 2-3-3-5.68

3rd: 9-9 67-65 14-13-252/317/370 9-8-114.1-3.23 0-1-5-4.23

4th: 12-6 85-84 29- 8-259/335/459 6-5- 97.2-4.98 6-1-6-4.08

5th: 7-11 70-76 23- 7-234/307/403 5-7-108.1-3.90 2-4-3-3.66

The fifth inning was the first losing inning by the Tigers in 2009. The inning featured an anemic offense that scored only 70 runs. It ruined the first inning in 2009 that both the starting and relief pitching had sub 4.00 eras. The Tigers went 3-7 in one and two run games after going 8-2 in previous inning. Interestingly, assuming the Tigers split those type of games, they would have been 9-9 for each of the innings.

The Tigers were 4-8 in road games in the 5th inning. The Tigers are now 21-29 on the road and 27-13 at home. The fact that 42 of the remaining 72 games left are at home is good news in this regard. The Home/Road splits are pretty staggering, especially the offense. The Tigers hitters average 5.6 runs per game at home, but under 4.0 per game on the road. The Tigers pitchers give up less than 4.0 runs per game at home, but 4.8 per game in the road.

Starting Pitching: With the all-star break, Verlander and Jackson started half of the 18 games in the 5th inning. They both pitched well, but the team was only 4-5 in those starts, scoring a grand total of 12 runs in the five loses. Galarraga and French also both pitched well. Procello was rocked in two starts before the team decided to give him a 17 days of rest before his next start.

Name	G	IP	W	L	S	K	ERA	WHIP
Edwin Jackson	4	27 1/3	1	1		22	2.96	1.13
Justin Verlander	5	31 1/3	2	2		37	3.45	1.31
A Galarraga	3	19 1/3	1	1		15	2.79	1.29
Lucas French	3	16	1	0		8	2.25	1.44
Rick Porcello	2	8 1/3	0	2		3	9.72	2.40
Alfredo Figaro	1	6	0	1		5	10.50	2.00

Bullpen: The bullpen was very good with the exception of two pitchers. Zach Miner was awful in mostly mop-up duty while Joel Zumaya was put on the DL after walking 9 and giving up 10 hits in 6.2 innings. Three times he surrendered the lead late when the Tigers were ahead. At this point, I don’t think the Tigers can count on getting anything from him the rest of the year. Rodney, Ni, Lyon, Seay, and Dolsi had a 1.83 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP combined!

Name	G	IP	W	L	S	K	ERA	WHIP
Bobby Seay	8	6	1	0		6	0.00	0.83
Fu-Te Ni	8	9	0	0		9	2.00	1.00
Freddy Dolsi	5	9 1/3	1	0		2	0.96	1.18
F Rodney	7	8	0	1		7	3.38	1.25
Brandon Lyon	6	7	0	1		5	2.57	1.43
Zach Miner	6	5 2/3	0	0		4	9.53	2.29
Joel Zumaya	7	6 2/3	0	2		5	9.45	2.85
Nate Robertson	1	0	0	0		0	-	INF

Offense: The offense continues to struggle. Are they swinging for the fences too much? In the first 36 games of the season, the offense averaged 5.58 runs per game using 1.14 HRs/game. In the last 54 games, the offense has averaged 4.11 runs per game, but increased their home runs to 1.22/game. Comparing the same period, the batting average is 20 points lower, and the on base percentage is 25 points lower. Miguel Cabrera, Marcus Thames, Gerald Laird were the only regulars with acceptable 5th inning performances. Clete Thomas and Ryan Raburn performed well in limited duty. The shortstop platoon was horrible and Magglio Ordonez would rather forget the first three and half months of 2009.

Name	G	AB	HR	RBI	SB	BA	OBP	SLG
Marcus Thames	17	62	5	11	0	.290	.371	.548
Miguel Cabrera	18	73	3	5	0	.288	.342	.452
Gerald Laird	16	53	1	6	0	.283	.339	.415
Brandon Inge	17	60	4	9	1	.217	.329	.417
Placido Polanco	17	70	3	14	0	.229	.299	.400
C Granderson	18	67	2	2	3	.224	.333	.373
Clete Thomas	6	19	2	7	0	.421	.476	.895
Ryan Raburn	14	38	1	5	0	.263	.300	.474
Josh Anderson	14	27	0	4	2	.185	.267	.296
Adam Everett	14	39	0	0	0	.205	.262	.308
Magglio Ordonez	13	43	1	4	1	.186	.239	.302
Ramon Santiago	9	24	1	2	0	.125	.154	.250
Don Kelly	8	18	0	0	0	.111	.111	.167
Dusty Ryan	3	8	0	0	0	.000	.200	.000
Alfredo Figaro	1	2	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000
Edwin Jackson	4	2	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000
Justin Verlander	5	1	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000

The Tigers still maintain a lead in the American League Central as they have since May 9th. The lead has shunk to less than 2 games over Minnesota and Chicago. Performance against their own division is going to critical as over 50% of the remaining games (38) are within the Division. 14 out of 20 games against Minnesota and Chicago are at Comerica including all seven games scheduled for the last week of the season. Will the Tigers be able to avoid the late season collapses that they have had under Leyland? Only time will tell.

The 4th Inning is Over

shoff — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 16:02:47 +0000

Let’s compare the first four innings of 2009:

Starters: Bullpen:

W-L RS –RA HR-SB-AVG/OBA/SLG W-L- IP- ERA W-L-S-ERA

1st: 10-8 102-84 21-12-276/349/432 7-6-103.1-4.62 3-2-4-3.96

2nd: 10-8 99-86 20- 6-265/342/436 8-5-104.0-3.63 2-3-3-5.68

3rd: 9-9 67-65 14-13-252/317/370 9-8-114.1-3.23 0-1-5-4.23

4th: 12-6 85-84 29- 8-259/335/459 6-5- 97.2-4.98 6-1-6-4.08

The fourth inning featured a 12-6 record despite the Tigers outscoring their opponents by only one run. The Tigers were helped tremendously by an 8-2 records in one and two run games. The Tigers must be concerned about getting under 98 innings from their starters. Only two innings in 2008 and one inning in 2007 featured less innings pitched by the starters. Even though the bullpen factored in all the wins (6 saves, and 6 wins) overuse of the pen will hurt the Tigers come mid August.

Starting Pitching: Verlander, Jackson, and Porcello continue to be very good, though Jackson may want to sue to offense for lack of run support. Galarraga is very shaky as the 4th starter, but shines compared to the trio who attempted to fill the 5th slot. Bonderman is not healthy and will probably not be back until Spring Training 2010. Dontrelle Willis walked 13 batters in 8.2 innings and went back on the DL for anxiety disorder. Figaro pitched around a bunch of runners to get a home win, but it remains to be seen whether he is ready for the show.

Name	G	IP	W	L	S	K	ERA	WHIP
Justin Verlander	3	20 2/3	2	1		21	3.48	1.21
Edwin Jackson	3	18	0	1		17	3.50	1.44
Rick Porcello	4	22 2/3	2	0		10	3.18	1.59
A Galarraga	4	18 2/3	1	1		9	6.75	1.93
Alfredo Figaro	1	5	1	0		7	3.60	2.00
Dontrelle Willis	2	8 2/3	0	1		4	9.35	2.77
J Bonderman	1	4	0	1		1	13.50	2.75

Bullpen: The back end of the bullpen struggled as Zumaya and Rodney combined to walk more than a batter per inning. Zumaya got picked up by the offense as he picked up a couple of wins. Rodney is doing a great Todd Jones impression by letting up all kinds of runners but is now a perfect 16/16 in save opportunities. Lyon, Seay and Miner were all outstanding in middle relief. Perry was sent down to Toledo (again) for some seasoning, while Nate Robertson has been awful. You would have to think the Tigers would of given Robertson a shot at starting of he had shown them anything through the first 45% of the season.

Name	G	IP	W	L	S	K	ERA	WHIP
Brandon Lyon	10	13 1/3	2	0	0	10	0.68	0.60
Bobby Seay	11	7 1/3	0	0	0	6	0.00	0.68
Zach Miner	6	10 2/3	2	0	0	9	0.84	0.84
F Rodney	9	8	0	0	6	8	5.62	1.75
Joel Zumaya	9	7 1/3	2	1	0	9	6.14	2.45
Ryan Keith Perry	4	5 1/3	0	0	0	5	8.44	2.44
Nate Robertson	7	5 1/3	0	0	0	6	15.19	2.63

Offense: The offense performed better in the 4th inning than the previous anemic 3rd inning. 29 homeruns are the most in an inning in the 2.5 years I have been doing this analysis. Cabrera and Inge continue to be the most consistent hitters on the team. Thames has been thumping since coming off the DL. Granderson is hitting with nice power, but needs to get on base more if he is going to bat leadoff. Polanco had a nice performance in the 4th inning after being way under his career numbers the first third of the season. Kelly and Raburn have provided a nice platoon and Santiago and Everett are doing very well as a SS combination.

Magglio was benched as he has continued to perform way under his career numbers. Gerald Laird has struggled offensively all year and Dusty Ryan was called up to improve on the .068 batting average (NOT a misprint!) of the backup catchers. Clete Thomas was sent to Toledo to work with Hitting Coach Leon “Bull” Durham. Josh Anderson is fast, but appears to have few other major league talents. Porcello’s 2 hits helped the pitchers hit a collective .182.

Name	G	AB	HR	RBI	SB	BA	OBP	SLG
Miguel Cabrera	18	68	5	8	0	.279	.347	.544
Marcus Thames	18	57	5	10	0	.281	.323	.596
Brandon Inge	18	61	5	14	0	.246	.347	.541
Placido Polanco	16	55	2	6	2	.309	.387	.509
C Granderson	17	67	4	8	3	.239	.329	.463
Don Kelly	11	30	0	3	0	.333	.412	.467
Ryan Raburn	15	36	2	6	1	.250	.372	.472
Ramon Santiago	11	26	2	3	0	.269	.321	.500
Adam Everett	14	44	1	9	0	.273	.353	.364
Gerald Laird	14	46	1	3	0	.217	.280	.370
Magglio Ordonez	11	41	1	3	1	.244	.289	.341
Dusty Ryan	2	6	0	1	0	.333	.429	.500
Josh Anderson	17	26	0	2	1	.231	.231	.231
Clete Thomas	5	11	1	4	0	.182	.182	.545
Dane Sardinha	3	5	0	1	0	.000	.000	.000
Rick Porcello	4	5	0	2	0	.400	.400	.400
Edwin Jackson	3	2	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000
Dontrelle Willis	2	1	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000
Justin Verlander	3	1	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000
Zach Miner	6	1	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000
A Galarraga	4	1	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000

The Tigers are a combined 36-18 in the 4th innings of the last three years, so they seem to usually play well this time of the year. How will they perform in August and September? That is the question. They are 23-11 at home and presently hold a 5-game lead in the division. They play 41 out of 75 post all-star games at home, so the schedule is favorable. If Magglio can get straightened out, they can find one more effective starter, and the backend of the bullpen throws strikes, October will be pretty fun at the COPA.