Patti Engineering Insight

A full baseball season can be broken into Nine 18-game segments. I have termed these 18-game segments as an “inning” of a season. In the past I have provided analysis of each “inning” at www.detroittigersweblog.com. For 2009, I am going to post the analysis on my own blog www.samhoff.com.

Let’s compare the first inning of 2009 to the first inning from the last 3 years.

                                                                              Starters:         Bullpen:

       W-L  RS –RA     HR-SB-AVG/OBA/SLG    W-L- IP-  ERA     W-L-S-ERA

2009: 10-8  102-84     21-12-276/349/432    7-6-103.1-4.62    3-2-4-3.96

2008:  6-12 74 -112    15-10-262/345/404    3-9- 96.2-5.96    3-3-3-5.28

2007: 10-8  86 -79     17- 9-235/313/380    5-2-110.2-3.66    5-6-8-4.68

2006: 11-7  89 -69     30- 5-281/332/496   10-7-107.2-4.01    1-0-5-3.10

The start of the 2009 season was much better than 2008 and compares favorably with 2007 and 2006. The team scored 102 runs (more than they did in 8 innings last year) and 12 steals was the most since 2007. The pitching has been improved over 2008 and Rick Knapp is having a positive effect with his “throw strikes philosophy.” The team is ranked 3rd in the league in issuing walks (after ranking 13th in 2008).

One interesting thing about this team is that they have the second oldest hitters in the league (avg age 30.5, behind the Yankees 30.7), but have the second youngest pitching staff (avg age 26.7, behind Oakland at 26.4). The season is young and there are still question marks surrounding this team including shortstop, starting pitching, and a recent history of late season collapses. In the last three seasons:

• 2006: The team had a 76-36 record and a 10-game lead on August 7^th, they then went 19-31 the rest of the year and lost the division.  
• 2007: The Team had a 59-38 record which was the best record in baseball and a 2-game lead on July 23^rd. They got swept at Chicago in a double header the next day on route to a 29-36 finish. 
• 2008: After a horrible start, the team climbs back to a 52-49 record on July 23^rd. They were within 5 games of the White Sox. A blown save by Todd Jones against the White Sox starts a 22-39 run to end the season.

Ed Nicholson Jr. (John T. Greilick / The Detroit News)

Shortly before the 1965 baseball season, “Fast” Eddy Nicholson used a connection to get a job as an usher for the Tigers. His first day on the job was opening day, April 21, 1965. The Tigers defeated the Kansas City A’s 1-0 behind the stellar pitching of Hank Aguirre.

Since 1996, Eddy’s affiliation with the Tigers has not been limited to Comerica Park. When Eddy retired from his full time job at Grand Trunk Railway, he and his wife started wintering in Florida and Eddy started working the third base gate at Joker Marchant Stadium during the Tiger’s spring training.

He has many fond memories of his 45 years with the Tigers including 2 All Star Games (1971 and 2005), 2 World Championships (1968 and 1984) and the improbable 2006 Pennant.  His favorite and most emotional memory came on September 27, 1999 when the Tigers said good bye to Tiger Stadium, their home since 1912. Eddy revealed that he could not hold back the tears when the former players took the field during the post game tribute.

I have had the pleasure of sitting in Fast Eddy’s section 132 for the past eight seasons. One particularly hot day, a young girl near us suffered a heat stroke. Eddy went into action and handle the situation flawlessly.

I am sure that his wife, five sons, and fourteen grand children are quite proud of Eddy’s class service to the Tigers. Eddy will regrettably become the Sr. Usher for the Tiger’s this year, as his friend and fellow usher, Dennis Kilpatrick, passed away in February. When you come to Comerica Park this summer, stop by and say hi to Eddy.

Each 18 games represent 1 inning of a baseball season. The Tigers record for each innings in 2008:

      Starters:         Bullpen:

    W-L   RS –RA     HR-SB-AVG/OBA/SLG    W-L-IP-   ERA     W-L-S-ERA

1:  6-12  74 -112    15-10-262/345/404    3-9- 96.2-5.96    3-3-3-5.28

2:  9-9   98 -87     21- 6-261/350/426    5-8-105.2-5.11    4-1-2-3.61

3:  8-10  89 -75     19- 2-275/326/442    8-5-109.2-4.19    0-5-4-3.83

4:  11-7  85 -74     19- 8-268/350/416    8-4-113.0-3.27    3-3-5-5.17

5:  12-6  86 -78     25- 6-297/347/476    6-4-106.1-4.23    6-2-6-3.43

6:  9-9   118-96     25- 8-299/368/483    8-6-105.0-5.49    1-3-2-4.03

7:  7-11  93- 103    26- 8-265/353/455    7-7-104.0-4.67    0-4-4-4.92

8:  8-10  91- 118    27- 8-263/335/475    4-8- 92.2-6.90    4-2-5-4.68

9:  4-14  87- 114    23- 7-245/330/410    3-7- 99.1-5.98    1-7-3-7.11

In the 9^th was an abomination. Four wins was the worst inning the team has had since the 7^th inning if 2003 (2-16). Three of the four wins came in the last weekend of the season against a Rays team that was busy celebrating their first ever division championship. The end of the season left a bad aftertaste in everyone’s mouth.

Leyland has now managed the Tigers for three years. The teams combined records in those three years (broken up by thirds):

Innings 1-3 (beginning third of seasons): 89-73

Innings 4-6 (middle third of seasons): 99-63

Innings 7-9 (last third of seasons): 69-93

The question for 2009 is not if the team will fade at the end of the year, but when the team will start fading. Let’s look at each of the 3 years:

2006: The team had a 76-36 record and a 10-game lead on August 7^th, they then went 19-31 the rest of the year and lost the division.

2007: The Team had a 59-38 record which was the best record in baseball and a 2-game lead on July 23^rd. They get swept at Chicago in a double header the next day on route to a 29-36 finish.

2008: After a horrible start, the team climbs back to a 52-49 record on July 23^rd. They are within 5 games of the White Sox. A blown save by Todd Jones against the White Sox starts a 22-39 run to end the season.

Onto the Analysis of the 9^th Inning:

Starting Pitching: Miner continued to pitch well. Freddy Garcia did well in his showcase for 2009. Galarraga was hurt by seven homeruns. Verlander finished a really bad campaign with a thud. Robertson and Willis were horrible and Kenny Rogers is probably done.

Bullpen: I love slurpees from 7-11, but a team ERA of 7.11 from the Bullpen is an absolute joke. Lopez, much like Miner, put up decent numbers this year but gets no respect in terms of a future job.

The offense had some bright spots. Dusty Ryan hit well and proved that he can hit major league pitching. Miguel Cabrera continued to hit. Hats off to 29-year old Mike Hessman, who has now surpassed 300 career homeruns (288 in the Minors and 13 in the Majors). Curtis Granderson slumped terribly. Brandon Inge continued to not hit and almost ended up below .200, but inexplicably was told he is the starting 3B for 2009?

The 2008 Tigers were one of the most disappointing teams in Detroit Sports History. Expected to compete for a World Championship, they instead finished last place and looked totally listless in the last six weeks of the season.

Will they bounce back for 2009? I have a tendency to think so. In my opinion, I still have a lot of faith in Dave Dombrowski and think the organization will rebound. I must say though that Jim Leyland may be one of the most overrated managers in the history of baseball (.494 career winning percentage).

Each 18 games represent 1 inning of a baseball season. The Tigers record for the first 8 innings in 2008:

                                                            Starters:     Bullpen: 

    W-L   RS –RA     HR-SB-AVG/OBA/SLG    W-L-IP-   ERA     W-L-S-ERA

1:  6-12  74 -112    15-10-262/345/404    3-9- 96.2-5.96    3-3-3-5.28

2:  9-9   98 -87     21- 6-261/350/426    5-8-105.2-5.11    4-1-2-3.61

3:  8-10  89 -75     19- 2-275/326/442    8-5-109.2-4.19    0-5-4-3.83

4:  11-7  85 -74     19- 8-268/350/416    8-4-113.0-3.27    3-3-5-5.17

5:  12-6  86 -78     25- 6-297/347/476    6-4-106.1-4.23    6-2-6-3.43

6:  9-9   118-96     25- 8-299/368/483    8-6-105.0-5.49    1-3-2-4.03

7:  7-11  93- 103    26- 8-265/353/455    7-7-104.0-4.67    0-4-4-4.92

8:  8-10  91- 118    27- 8-263/335/475    4-8- 92.2-6.90    4-2-5-4.68

In the 8^th inning ended with a three game winning streak, otherwise it would have been really ugly. The pitching has completely fallen apart. They gave up seven or more runs in 50% of the games in the inning. The team is playing out the string and it is clear that most of the team cannot wait until September 28^th comes. Looking back at all the expectations that this team had in March, it is hard to believe how bad this team is.

The starting pitching was abysmal. Galarraga was the only pitcher with an ERA under 5.00 (and he barely made it). Miner has come back down to earth after some very good starts and the great mystery of Verlander’s 2008 struggles continue. Kenny Roger’s career looks over and Nate Robertson gave up 5 homeruns in his only start!

In the Bullpen, Kyle Farnsworth was terrific. The 2 Tampa reject (Glover and Fossum) also pitched well. Francis Beltran pitched 2.2 scoreless innings. No one else had a WHIP below 1.64. Do not be fooled by Rodney’s 5 saves, He gave up 7 walks and 10 hits in 8 innings!

The offense scored over 5 runs/game. Cabrera, Ordonez, and Granderson are leading the pace. Can anyone give a good reason why Sheffield is continuing to garner his regular playing time? If he gets to 500 homeruns (he needs 4 more) is he going to retire? If that is the case, bat him leadoff so he can get his milestone and save the Tigers 14m next year. Displaying from best to worst:

The Tigers must now go 12-6 in the final inning to have a winning record. DO NOT BET ON IT. As long as they keep trotting out Sheffield, Thames, and 29-year old minor league legend Mike Hessman and do not play any youngsters, there is absolutely no reason to watch the train wreck known as the 2008 Tigers. Watch the Lions, their 50 year run of futility will make you feel better about the Tigers.

Each 18 games represent 1 inning of a baseball season. The Tigers record for the first 7 innings in 2008:

        Starters:     Bullpen:

    W-L   RS –RA     HR-SB-AVG/OBA/SLG    W-L-IP-   ERA     W-L-S-ERA

1:  6-12  74 -112    15-10-262/345/404    3-9- 96.2-5.96    3-3-3-5.28

2:  9-9   98 -87     21- 6-261/350/426    5-8-105.2-5.11    4-1-2-3.61

3:  8-10  89 -75     19- 2-275/326/442    8-5-109.2-4.19    0-5-4-3.83

4:  11-7  85 -74     19- 8-268/350/416    8-4-113.0-3.27    3-3-5-5.17

5:  12-6  86 -78     25- 6-297/347/476    6-4-106.1-4.23    6-2-6-3.43

6:  9-9   118-96     25- 8-299/368/483    8-6-105.0-5.49    1-3-2-4.03

7:  7-11  93- 103    26- 8-265/353/455    7-7-104.0-4.67    0-4-4-4.92

In the 7^th inning found the Tigers start the inning with a 5-game losing streak that seemed to drain the life and energy out of the team and their fans. The season thus far can be broken into 3 distinct segments: The abysmal 24-36 start that dug a huge hole, the 28-13 run that started June 7^th with a Thames’ lead comeback win against Cleveland that got the team to 52-49, and the most recent 10-15 run that was started July 25^th with Dye’s 2-run 9^th inning homerun off of Todd Jones.

The starting pitching improved as a unit from Horrible to Mediocre, the exception being Galarraga who was great. Displaying from best to worst:

In the Bullpen, the emergence of Fernando Rodney as a closer was a bright spot. Bobby Seay continued to do well and Gary Glover provided 2.2 innings of perfect work. Other than those 3, it was pretty much like throwing gasoline on a fire. Displaying from best to worst:

The offense did OK. The 93 runs do not match a 1,000 runs/season pace, but scoring over 5 runs per game should be sufficient. Overall, I would give the individual hitters in the 7^th inning a passing grade except our Catching tandem (Inge and Sardinha), and the extremely cold Marcus Thames. Displaying from best to worst:

Even if the Tigers were to go 28-8 over the remaining 36 games to get to 90 wins, both Chicago and Minnesota would have to play at or below .500 to win the division. The Wild card is even more daunting as the Tigers are 11 games back and would have to pass four teams. The last two innings should tell a lot about 2009 and what kind of direction the team will take in the off season. That is the only reason to keep watching this train wreck at this point.

www.DetroitTigersWeblog.com

An Internet Friend of mine (aka Billfer) owns the Detroit Tigers Weblog. It is one of my favorite destinations on the World Wide Web. Billfer’s writing style is great. He keeps his site up to date on the latest Tiger News and he has lots of good comments posted by many Tiger Fans.

Starting last year I have been submitting a post to Billfer’s site. I take the 162-game Tiger Schedule and break it into 9 “innings” of a season. Each inning consist of 18 games. By breaking down the season in these even chunks you can evaluate how the offense, starting pitching, and bullpen are doing as a unit. You can also evaluate which players are hot and cold. A team that wins 100 games will average an 11-7 record. A 10-8 average will lead to 90 wins.

My latest post at Detroit Tiger Weblog recaps the 2008 Tigers after 2 innings.

Some other interesting inning by inning results:

1984 Tigers (WS Champs): 15-3, 16-2, 10-8, 12-6, 9-9, 10-8, 10-8, 10-8, 12-6 = 104-58

2003 Tigers (Historically Bad): 1-17, 7-11, 6-12, 4-14, 6-12, 5-13, 2-16, 6-12, 6-12 = 43-119

2006 Tigers: (AL Champs): 11-7, 12-6, 13-5, 12-6, 13-5, 11-7, 9-9, 5-13, 9-9 = 95-67

See you at Billfer’s site.

I just finished a good book and recommend it for anyone who is a baseball or golf fan. The title of the book is “Ty and the Babe” by Tom Stanton. The Book is about Ty Cobb and Babe Ruth and details their relationship from the point that Babe Ruth came into the league (9 years after Cobb) until the time of Babe Ruth’s death in 1948 (Ruth died of throat cancer at age 53, while Cobb lived until 1961 – age 74). Of the 18 comments on Amazon.com, 16 people give the book 5 out of 5 stars while the remaining 2 gave it 4 stars.

The book is about a lot more than baseball and you will realize that Stanton did some outstanding research for the book. The last third details a 1941 3-city golf tournament between the two that raised money for charity. The one thing that resonates throughout the book is that the modern day perception of Ty Cobb is overblown. Tom Stanton does a great job of explaining this on his web site.

So, Ty Cobb wasn’t such a bad guy?

Cobb was nicer than most people think. He was not the Satan of baseball. He was not, as one historian has described him, the “single black mark” on the game. Cobb was smart, articulate, and socially polished, and he could be charming and winsome. Contrary to his image, he did have friends. Over the years, I’ve come upon many people who knew Cobb and have wonderful memories of him. He was always extremely competitive, and in his early days he was quick to use his fists. But I can’t think of a more maligned figure in baseball history. A fan from his time wouldn’t recognize Cobb based on how he’s portrayed now. In his day, he was admired and respected, which isn’t to say he was an angel.

Why did his image change?

Much of how we view Cobb was framed by writer Al Stump, who spent several months with Cobb near the end of his life. By that time, Cobb was in the grips of alcoholism and cancer. He was a bitter man who had buried two adult sons. After Cobb died, Stump captured that bitterness in an ugly portrait of him for a 1961 magazine story. Eventually, that story evolved into a book, which spawned the brutal 1994 Cobb movie. It’s been all downhill for Cobb since his death. I’m hoping Ty and The Babe helps balance our perception of Cobb. I’m thinking of nicknaming my book tour “The Ty Cobb Redemption, Reformation, and Resurrection Tour.”

The book is a quick read. At the beginning of each chapter are some great pictures, many of which are from the Ernie Harwell collection at the Detroit Public Library. My favorite picture comes from the epilogue on page 234. It is the from final meeting between Ty and the Babe on September 28, 1947 when Ty flew to Yankee Stadium as part of a former player’s fund raising effort for Babe’s foundation as he was battling cancer. The picture has Ty’s arm on Babe’s shoulder as a sickly looking Ruth’s eyes are wet.

Do yourself a favor, if you are a baseball (or golf) fan, go pick up the book.

Watching the Tiger game last night and seeing Curtis Granderson hit 2 triples was awesome. The Triple maybe the most exciting play in baseball (save the inside the park HR).

Granderson Has 12 Triples in 59 games. Projecting that out, he is on a pace for 33 triples. Since 1950, exactly 5 times players have had 20 or more triples, they are:

• 1957 – Willie Mays – 20
  1979 – George Brett – 20
  1985 – Willie Wilson – 21
  1996 – Lance Johnson – 21
  2000 – Christian Guzman – 20

The all-time record for triples is 36 by Chief Wilson in 1912. The Tiger record is Ty Cobb with 24 in 1911 and 1917.

In addition to Granderson, Magglio Ordonez has 29 doubles in 59 games. Projecting that out, he is one pace for 80 doubles.

The all-time record is 67 by Earl Webb in 1931. The Tiger record (and 4th alltime) is Hank Greenberg with 63.

No one has hit 60 doubles since 1936, altough Todd Helton, Carlos Delgado, Garrett Anderson, Criag Biggio, Nomar Garciapara, and Lance Berkman have all been 55+ in the last 10 years.

Update: Curtis Granderson hit 11 triples in 103 games after this post not keeping up his record pace. He did end the season with 23 triples, the most in the Major Leagues since 1925 when Kiki Cuyler hit 26.  He actually appeared to have a shot at more, but only hit 2 triples after August 24th (34 games).

Ordonez ended the season leading the Major Leagues with 54 doubles, a great total to be sure. He kept up his doubles pace for a while after this post by hitting his 34th double in the team’s 70th game. Over the next 44 games though he slowed considerably by hitting only 5 doubles. Maggs lead the Major Leagues with a .363 batting average. He would have been MVP except for the fact that the richest player in baseball was in a contract drive.